大越期货碳酸锂期货周报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed an upward trend, with the opening price on Monday at 82,600 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 87,360 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5.76%. It is expected that next week, the supply side will continue to increase production, the demand side will continue to grow, and costs will remain low. The market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Supply Side: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,545 tons, higher than the historical average. Among them, lithium spodumene production was 12,904 tons, a 1.67% decrease from the previous period; lithium mica production was 2,941 tons, a 2.32% decrease; salt lake production was 3,555 tons, a 7.11% increase; and recycling production was 2,145 tons, a 3.13% increase [4]. - Demand Side: In October 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 126,961 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70%. The predicted demand for next month is 132,001 physical tons, a 3.97% increase. The export volume in October was 324 physical tons, a 14.57% increase, and the predicted export volume for next month is 454 physical tons, a 40.12% increase. In October, the production of power batteries, energy - storage batteries, and new energy vehicles all showed growth, and the inventory of dealers decreased, which supported the demand for lithium carbonate [5][6]. - Cost Side: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 84,346 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%, resulting in a loss of 397 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 87,365 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, with a loss of 5,577 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm was average. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [6]. - Inventory Side: The smelter inventory was 28,270 tons, a 7.96% decrease; the downstream inventory was 48,772 tons, a 6.22% decrease; other inventories were 43,430 tons, a 5.34% increase; and the total inventory was 120,472 tons, a 2.80% decrease [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Lithium Ore: The price, production, import, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore are presented in the report, along with the supply - demand balance sheet of lithium ore from October 2024 to October 2025 [16][18][20]. - Supply - Lithium Carbonate: The report shows the production, capacity, import, and supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from different sources and time periods [22][27]. - Supply - Lithium Hydroxide: Information on the production capacity utilization rate, production, export, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide is provided [29][31]. - Lithium Compound Cost and Profit: The cost, profit, and cost composition of various lithium compounds, including lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled lithium, are analyzed [34][37][40]. - Inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including monthly and weekly data, is presented [42]. - Demand - Lithium Battery: The report shows the price, production, shipment, and export of lithium batteries, as well as the cost of battery cells [46][49]. - Demand - Ternary Precursor: The price, cost, production capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors are analyzed [52][55]. - Demand - Ternary Material: Information on the price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of ternary materials is provided [58][60]. - Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium: The price, production cost, profit, production, export, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented [62][65]. - Demand - New Energy Vehicle: The production, sales, export, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles are analyzed, along with the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers [70][74]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 01 contract showed an upward trend. The report provides the price and trading volume data of the LC main contract from October 15 to November 14, and it is expected that the market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment next week [77][78].