大越期货原油周报-20251117

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global crude oil market is in a state of structural supply surplus, with both OPEC and EIA expecting oversupply. However, factors such as OPEC's lower - than - expected production increase, the uncertainty of Russian energy supply, and the return of funds are providing some support to oil prices. The market outlook is complex, and short - term oil prices may oscillate at low levels. It is recommended to operate in the short term within the range of 455 - 475 and wait and see in the long term [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - Price Trends: Last week, NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $59.81 per barrel, up 0.93% week - on - week; Brent crude futures closed at $64.29 per barrel, down 0.05% week - on - week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 461.7 yuan per barrel, up 0.24% week - on - week [3]. - Supply and Demand: The global market has shifted from a daily supply shortage of 400,000 barrels to a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels. EIA expects the U.S. oil production to average 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, higher than the previous estimate. Indian refiners said that Saudi Arabia and Iraq would fully deliver the contracted crude oil volume to India in December and could increase the supply [3]. - Production: In October, OPEC's daily crude oil production was 28.43 million barrels, an increase of 30,000 barrels from September, with the increase lower than the planned 114,000 barrels. Despite Ukraine's drone attacks, Russia's oil processing volume decreased by only 3% this year, and the decline in refining volume from August to October was 6% [3]. - Funds: In the week of November 11, the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures increased by 12,636 contracts to 164,867 contracts; as of the week of September 23, the net long positions in WTI crude oil held by speculators increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts [3]. 3.2 Related News - Fed Policy: With less than a month until the December interest - rate meeting, the Fed's stance is divided, but the balance is tilting towards keeping the policy unchanged. Several Fed officials expressed hawkish views this week [4]. - IEA Outlook: IEA believes there is "considerable downside risk" to Russia's crude oil production outlook, but it has not estimated the specific impact yet. It maintains the estimate of Russia's average daily output of 9.3 million barrels in this quarter and next year [4]. - Market Structure: The futures curve of WTI shows a "contango" structure for most of 2026, indicating weak demand for spot - delivered crude oil. In October, U.S. crude oil exports reached the highest level since July 2024. The futures curve of Brent crude oil will remain flat in the months after March next year [4]. - Geopolitical Events: Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil terminals and the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia have led to potential supply losses, driving up oil prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has fluctuated sharply, from nearly 95% to about 50% [5]. 3.3 Outlook - The oil price will oscillate at a low level in the future. It is recommended to operate in the short - term within the range of 455 - 475 and wait and see in the long - term, while paying attention to the progress of geopolitical events [5]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: The prices of various crude oil varieties such as UK Brent Dtd, WTI, etc. have all declined compared with the previous period, with price drops ranging from - 0.36 to - 1.66 dollars and price decline rates from - 0.54% to - 2.56% [8]. - Inventory Data: The Cushing inventory and EIA inventory have fluctuated. For example, as of November 7, the Cushing inventory was 22.519 million barrels, a decrease of 346,000 barrels; the EIA inventory was 427.581 million barrels, an increase of 6.413 million barrels [10][11]. 3.5 Position Data - CFTC and ICE Data: The net long positions in WTI and Brent crude oil futures have changed. By calculation, the net long positions in WTI crude oil held by speculators and the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures have increased in some periods [3][17][18].