大越期货PVC期货早报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC decreased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production. The current demand may remain sluggish, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4584 - 4632. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth [6][9][14]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - On November 14, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4590 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 18 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation. The factory inventory was 32235 tons, a decrease of 3.65% month - on - month, and the social inventory was 53230 tons, a decrease of 2.45% month - on - month. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend. The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also showing a bearish trend [11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply Side - In October 2025, the PVC output was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.51%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points month - on - month. The output of calcium carbide enterprises was 34355 tons, a decrease of 0.52% month - on - month, and the output of ethylene enterprises was 13491 tons, a decrease of 8.08% month - on - month. Next week, the expected maintenance is expected to decrease, and the scheduled production is expected to increase slightly [6]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 49.54%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 36.96%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 40.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The shipping cost is expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain sluggish [6]. 3.2.3 Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 819.69 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 491 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2186.35 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 0.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average, which may put pressure on production scheduling [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market data, including prices, price changes, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and downstream operating rates of different types of PVC enterprises and products, as well as cost and profit data [17]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market 3.4.1 Basis Trend - The report shows the basis trend of PVC from 2022 to 2025, including the relationship between the basis, the East China market price of PVC, and the closing price of the main contract [20]. 3.4.2 Futures Price and Volume Trends - It presents the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract from October to November 2025 [23]. 3.4.3 Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - It shows the spread trends of different contract months (such as 1 - 9, 5 - 9) of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025 [26]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method 3.5.1 Lanthanum Coke - The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of lanthanum coke from 2016 to 2025 [29]. 3.5.2 Calcium Carbide - It presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and output trends of calcium carbide from 2018 to 2025 [32]. 3.5.3 Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt - It shows the price, output trends of liquid chlorine from 2020 to 2025, and the price and monthly output trends of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [34]. 3.5.4 Caustic Soda - It provides the price, cost - profit, operating rate, output, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and flake caustic soda inventory trends of 32% caustic soda (Shandong) from 2019 to 2025, as well as the cost - profit trends of Shandong chlor - alkali [36][39]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, the profit trends of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly output of sample enterprises of PVC from 2018 to 2025 [41][43]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It presents the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin of PVC, as well as the profit, cost, monthly output, and apparent consumption of paste resin from 2019 to 2025. It also shows the real estate investment completion amount, housing construction area, new housing start - up area, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area from 2018 to 2025, as well as the social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [46][48][53]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [57]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - It presents the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene method (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import spread (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) from 2018 to 2025 [59]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly import, output, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025 [62].