工业硅期货周报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 01 contract was in a downward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 9,230 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 9,020 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 2.27%. It is expected that the supply-side production schedule will decrease next week, demand recovery will be at a low level, and cost support will increase. The futures market is expected to have a bullish sideways adjustment [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 01 contract was in an upward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 53,000 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 54,045 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.97%. It is expected that the supply-side production schedule will continue to decrease next week, demand will show a continuous decline, and cost support will remain stable. The futures market is expected to have a bullish sideways adjustment [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 45,440 tons, a 0.79% decrease. The expected monthly operating rate is 58%, a 10.12 - percentage - point decrease from last month [4]. - Demand: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase. In different sectors, polysilicon inventory is lower than the historical average, organic silicon is in a loss state, and the recycled aluminum operating rate is higher than the historical average [5]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang is 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 546,000 tons, a 1.08% decrease; the sample enterprise inventory is 172,600 tons, a 0.35% increase; the main port inventory is 127,000 tons, unchanged [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: The polysilicon output last week was 26,800 tons, a 0.74% decrease. The predicted November production schedule is 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from last month [7]. - Demand: In various downstream sectors, the production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows different degrees of decline or change in inventory. For example, the silicon wafer production is in a loss state, and the battery cell inventory has increased significantly [7]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon materials in the industry is 38,920 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 13,380 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 267,000 tons, a 3.08% increase, at a historical low [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Price - Basis and Delivery Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract, the price difference between East China 421 and 553 silicon, etc., which helps to understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets and different grades of silicon [14]. - Inventory: It presents the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and types, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and port inventory, which reflects the supply and demand situation in the market [16]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon production, capacity utilization, and operating rate in different regions, which helps to analyze the supply - side situation [18][20]. - Cost: It shows the historical trends of electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in the main production areas, which affects the production cost of industrial silicon [23]. - Supply - Demand Balance: It provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including production, import, export, consumption, and balance, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand situation in the market [30][33][57]. - Downstream Industries: It analyzes the price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance of various downstream industries of industrial silicon, including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon, which reflects the impact of downstream demand on the industrial silicon market [36][44][54]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - Industrial Silicon: The SI main contract's 01 contract was in a downward trend this week. Based on the price and volume data and moving average analysis, it is expected to have a bullish sideways adjustment next week [76][77]. - Polysilicon: The PS main contract's 01 contract was in an upward trend this week. Based on the price and volume data and moving average analysis, it is expected to have a bullish sideways adjustment next week [78][79].