《能源化工》日报-20251117

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Methanol - The methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. The inventory issue for the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue until Iran restricts gas supply [1]. LLDPE & PP - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and a slight inventory build - up under new capacity pressure. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with abundant imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural films. Suggest to gradually stop losses and reduce positions for previous short positions as the market is still in an oversupply situation [5]. Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. Supply - side factors may keep raw material prices high, while demand is weak. The market is in a seasonal inventory accumulation period, and if raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further price decline; otherwise, prices may range between 15000 - 15500 [7]. Glass & Soda Ash - Soda ash has a large - scale oversupply situation. Although the spot has rebounded recently, the long - term outlook is bearish. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. Glass sales have weakened recently, and although there is short - term demand support, the long - term outlook is also bearish due to the real - estate situation [9]. PVC & Caustic Soda - Caustic soda has supply - demand pressure, with weak demand from the main downstream alumina industry. Its price is expected to oscillate weakly. PVC is in an oversupply situation, with supply remaining high and demand weakening, and its price is expected to continue to be weak [10]. Crude Oil - The crude oil market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Although recent news has supported prices, the upward space is limited due to OPEC+ production increase pressure and high US inventories. Brent crude may trade in the range of 60 - 66 dollars per barrel [11]. Ester Industry Chain - PX supply is relatively high, and although there is short - term demand support, the rebound is expected to be limited. PTA is expected to be in a tight balance in November but loose from December to Q1 next year, with limited price rebound space. Ethylene glycol is facing inventory build - up pressure. Short - fiber has a weak supply - demand outlook, and bottle - chip supply - demand is loose [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price and Spread: MA2601 and MA2605 closed down on November 14 compared to November 13, with decreases of 2.28% and 2.04% respectively. The regional spreads and basis also changed [1]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 4.44%, while port inventory increased by 1.75%, and social inventory increased by 0.49% [1]. - Upstream and Downstream开工率: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise开工率 increased, while some downstream开工率 decreased, such as the external - purchased MTO装置开工率 which decreased by 2.38% [1]. LLDPE & PP - Price and Spread: L2601 and L2605 prices increased slightly, while PP2601 and PP2605 decreased slightly. The basis of PE and PP in North China and East China increased [5]. - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory increased by 7.96%, and social inventory decreased by 1.86%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 3.35%, and trade - dealer inventory increased by 1.73% [5]. - Upstream and Downstream开工率: PE装置开工率 increased by 0.66%, and downstream加权开工率 decreased by 0.80%. PP装置开工率 increased by 2.28%, and downstream加权开工率 increased by 0.3% [5]. Natural Rubber - Price and Spread: Some spot prices remained unchanged, while the basis and some spreads changed. For example, the full - latex basis increased by 29.66% [7]. - Production and Consumption: September production in some countries changed, and tire production and export also changed. For example, September Thai production decreased by 5.45%, and tire export in September decreased by 10.65% [7]. - 开工率 and Inventory: Tire开工率 was stable or decreased slightly, and inventory increased. For example, the bonded - area inventory increased by 0.40% [7]. Glass & Soda Ash - Price and Spread: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions were mostly stable or decreased slightly. The basis of glass and soda ash increased [9]. - Supply and Inventory: Soda ash开工率 and weekly production decreased, and glass and soda ash inventories increased [9]. - Real - Estate Data: Real - estate new - start, construction, completion, and sales areas all showed negative growth to varying degrees [9]. PVC & Caustic Soda - Price and Spread: Some PVC and caustic soda prices were stable or changed slightly. The basis and spreads also changed [10]. - Supply and Demand: Caustic soda开工率 decreased slightly, and PVC总开工率 decreased by 3.2%. The downstream开工率 of both also changed [10]. - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased [10]. Crude Oil - Price and Spread: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased on November 14 compared to November 13. Some spreads also changed significantly, such as the WTI M1 - M3 spread which increased by 82.35% [11]. - Market Situation: The market is affected by multiple factors, with a weak supply - demand pattern but short - term price support [11]. Ester Industry Chain - Price and Spread: Upstream raw material prices such as Brent crude increased, and downstream polyester product prices and cash - flows changed. PX, PTA, and MEG prices and spreads also changed [14]. - 开工率 and Inventory: The开工率 of various segments in the polyester industry chain changed, and MEG port inventory was expected to increase [14].