Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Lithium - The short - term supply - demand is expected to increase, but there is no substantial switch. The marginal drive of new demand is limited after entering the off - season. The social inventory is still being depleted, but the digestion speed of warehouse receipts has slowed down recently. Attention should be paid to the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. The short - term sentiment may be adjusted, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly. Follow - up attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large manufacturers before the end of the year and the marginal changes in downstream demand after entering the off - season [1]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment has improved, but the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply of nickel remains loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. The short - term driving force is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [2]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There are still pressures on the supply side in terms of steel mill production scheduling and social inventory, and demand improvement is insufficient. The short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [4]. Tin - Recently, macro - fluctuations have been large. Considering the strong fundamentals, it is advisable to choose the opportunity to go long at low levels after the market sentiment stabilizes. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in the macro - end and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [7]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable with a slight increase, but the futures price fluctuates downward. There is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is still expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of organic silicon production cuts [8]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is mainly stable, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. The market is still in a situation of both supply and demand decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price [9]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure may be limited in the future. The demand side has no outstanding performance, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze eases. The zinc ingot export may boost the domestic zinc price. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and the upward or downward breakthrough requires specific conditions [12]. Copper - In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the bottom center of copper prices to gradually move up. Follow - up attention should be paid to marginal changes in demand and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract focusing on the support around 86,500 yuan/ton [14]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price may face downward pressure, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum referring to the operating range of 21,400 - 22,000 yuan/ton next week. Attention should be paid to overseas monetary policy trends and marginal changes in the domestic fundamentals. The alumina price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - In the short - term, the price of ADC12 will maintain a relatively strong operation, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, changes in downstream procurement rhythm, and the inventory depletion process [18]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues Price and Basis - Lithium: The average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide all increased slightly. The prices of some lithium raw materials remained unchanged [1]. - Nickel: The prices of various nickel products generally decreased, and the cost of some electrolytic nickel production processes changed [2]. - Stainless Steel: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils decreased slightly, and the prices of some raw materials remained stable or decreased slightly [4]. - Tin: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin decreased, and the LME 0 - 3 premium changed [7]. - Industrial Silicon: The spot prices of industrial silicon were stable, and the futures price decreased [8]. - Polysilicon: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price fluctuated greatly [9]. - Zinc: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [12]. - Copper: The prices of various copper products decreased slightly, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [14]. - Aluminum: The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and alumina in some regions decreased, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [16]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: The spot price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was stable, and the scrap - refined price difference increased [18]. Monthly and Inter - monthly Spreads - Lithium: The inter - monthly spreads of lithium contracts changed, showing different trends [1]. - Nickel: The inter - monthly spreads of nickel contracts changed [2]. - Stainless Steel: The inter - monthly spreads of stainless steel contracts changed [4]. - Tin: The inter - monthly spreads of tin contracts changed significantly [7]. - Industrial Silicon: The inter - monthly spreads of industrial silicon contracts changed [8]. - Polysilicon: The inter - monthly spreads of polysilicon contracts changed [9]. - Zinc: The inter - monthly spreads of zinc contracts changed [12]. - Copper: The inter - monthly spreads of copper contracts changed [14]. - Aluminum: The inter - monthly spreads of aluminum contracts changed [16]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: The inter - monthly spreads of casting aluminum alloy contracts changed [18]. Fundamental Data - Lithium: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, the import decreased in September, and the inventory decreased in October [1]. - Nickel: The production of refined nickel in China increased, the import volume increased significantly, and the inventory in various regions changed [2]. - Stainless Steel: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly, the import increased, the export decreased, and the inventory changed [4]. - Tin: The production of SMM refined tin in October increased, the import of tin ore in September decreased, and the inventory in various regions changed [7]. - Industrial Silicon: The production of industrial silicon in some regions changed, the production of some downstream products changed, and the inventory decreased [8]. - Polysilicon: The production and inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the import and export volumes also changed [9]. - Zinc: The production of refined zinc increased in October, the import decreased in September, the export increased significantly, and the inventory in various regions changed [12]. - Copper: The production of electrolytic copper decreased in October, the import increased in September, and the inventory in various regions changed [14]. - Aluminum: The production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased in October, the import and export volumes changed, and the inventory in various regions changed [16]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: The production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots changed in October, the import and export volumes changed, and the inventory in various regions changed [18].
《有色》日报-20251117
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-17 05:31