Group 1: Steel Industry Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, hot metal production rebounded, the apparent demand of the five major steel products declined, production continued to decrease, and inventory continued to be destocked. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. Iron ore port inventory continued to accumulate, and the supply of iron elements in the January contract turned loose. The iron element chain has a basis for negative feedback, so it is not recommended to go long. The long coking coal and short hot-rolled coil arbitrage declined due to the decline in coking coal. Considering the inventory differentiation between the two, this arbitrage logic will continue in the near term and can be held. On the single-side trend, the steel price valuation is not high, but there is a lack of upward driving force. Considering the iron element inventory accumulation, the price is expected to maintain a weak downward trend. It is recommended to mainly take short positions [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Steel Prices and Spreads: Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot prices in some regions declined, while futures prices rose slightly. The basis and spreads of different contracts also changed [2]. - Cost and Profit: The billet price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2950 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The profits of steel products in different regions and varieties generally declined [2]. - Production: The daily average hot metal production increased by 2.6 to 236.8, a rise of 1.1%. The production of the five major steel products decreased by 22.4 to 834.4, a decline of 2.6%. Rebar and hot-rolled coil production also decreased [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 26.2 to 1477.4, a decline of 1.7%. Rebar inventory decreased, while hot-rolled coil inventory was basically flat [2]. - Trading Volume and Demand: Building material trading volume and the apparent demand of the five major steel products declined slightly [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the iron ore futures rebounded after a rapid decline. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased week-on-week, and the arrival volume at the 45 ports declined. Based on recent shipping data, the subsequent average arrival volume will increase. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin declined slightly, the hot metal volume rebounded, and the restocking demand of steel mills increased slightly. From the data of the five major steel products, it can be seen that production and inventory continued to decline seasonally, and the apparent demand decreased, indicating weakening demand. In terms of inventory, port inventory increased, the port clearance volume increased, and the steel mills' equity ore inventory rose. Looking forward, although the hot metal production rebounded this week, there is limited room for further increase. With the current profit margin and inventory level of steel mills, it is not enough to trigger negative feedback. It is expected that iron ore will fluctuate in a high range, and it is advisable to wait and see on the single side [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Iron Ore Prices and Spreads: The prices of some iron ore varieties changed slightly, and the basis and spreads of different contracts also changed [4]. - Supply: The weekly arrival volume at the 45 ports decreased by 477.2 to 2741.2, a decline of 14.8%. The global weekly shipment volume decreased by 144.8 to 3069.0, a decline of 4.5%. The national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6, a rise of 10.6% [4]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.7 to 236.9, a rise of 1.1%. The daily average port clearance volume at the 45 ports increased by 6.0 to 327.0, a rise of 1.9%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 49.6 to 6555.0, a decline of 0.8%. The national monthly crude steel production decreased by 149.0 to 7200.0, a decline of 2.0% [4]. - Inventory Changes: The port inventory increased slightly, the steel mills' imported ore inventory increased, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Coke: Last week, the coke futures fluctuated and declined. Recently, the rhythm of the futures and spot markets has not been consistent. The port trade quotation declined following the futures, and the fourth round of price increase by mainstream coke enterprises was implemented. On the supply side, the coking coal price in the Shanxi market fluctuated at a high level, providing cost support for coke. After the price increase by coke enterprises, they still faced losses, and the operating rate decreased. On the demand side, the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan were lifted, the hot metal production rebounded from a low level, the steel price was weak, and the steel mill profit decreased, which had a certain suppression effect on the coke price increase. In terms of inventory, the inventories of coking plants, ports, and steel mills decreased slightly, and the overall inventory decreased slightly from the middle level. Coke supply and demand were tight, and downstream enterprises destocked passively. Recently, the coking coal quotation declined following the futures, and the Shanxi auctions began to show a mixed trend of rising and falling, but overall, the coking coal price remained firm, and coke still had the expectation of a price increase. The strategy is to view it as oscillating on the single side, with the reference range of 1650 - 1780, and it is recommended to take a long - short position in the 1 - 5 spread of coke, but it is necessary to prevent the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [6]. - Coking Coal: Last week, the coking coal futures showed an oscillating and declining trend. The spot auction prices in Shanxi turned to a mixed trend of rising and falling, the Mongolian coal quotation declined following the futures, and recently, the thermal coal market continued to rise, but the increase narrowed. The overall tight pattern of the coal spot market showed signs of loosening. On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi, Luliang, Linfen, and Wuhai began to resume production, and it is expected that the coking coal supply will increase in the later period, but the production recovery is limited. In terms of imported coal, the Mongolian coal customs clearance increased significantly in November, the port inventory rebounded from a low level, the Mongolian coal quotation was somewhat loose, and traders were afraid of high prices and increased the hedging ratio. On the demand side, the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan were lifted, the hot metal production rebounded from a low level, the coking operating rate declined slightly, and the restocking demand of steel mills at high prices weakened. In terms of inventory, coking enterprises and ports destocked, while coal mines, coal washing plants, ports, and steel mills stocked up, and the overall inventory increased slightly from the middle level. The policy emphasized energy supply guarantee during the heating season, which led to the expectation of increased coal supply and falling prices in the market. The strategy is to view it as oscillating on the single side, with the reference range of 1170 - 1290, and it is recommended to take a long - short position in the 1 - 5 spread of coking coal, but it is necessary to prevent the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Coke - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of some coke varieties and contracts changed slightly, and the basis and spreads also changed [6]. - Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of some coking coal varieties and contracts declined, and the basis and spreads also changed [6]. - Supply: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased, while the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The raw coal production increased [6]. - Demand: The hot metal production increased, and the coke production decreased slightly [6]. - Inventory Changes: The total coke inventory decreased, and the coking coal inventory increased slightly. The inventory levels of different sectors also changed [6]. - Supply - Demand Gap: The coke supply - demand gap increased [6].
《黑色》日报-20251117
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-17 05:30