大越期货沥青期货周报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend, with the Monday opening price at 3,048 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 3,037 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.36%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, while the supply will decrease, and the cost support will strengthen. The market may experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Supply: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the domestic sample capacity utilization rate of petroleum asphalt was 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 213,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.02%. The sample enterprise output was 514,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 836,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.21%. Refineries reduced production this week, and it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week [5]. - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 11.2169%, a month - on - month increase of 0.79 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 34%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 562.55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 915.1743 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14.48%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the short - term support will strengthen [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02%. The in - plant inventory was 647,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 350,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.75%. The social inventory continued to decline, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to accumulate [6]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 01 contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [105].