大越期货沥青期货早报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the total planned production volume of asphalt from local refineries in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production this week, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 11.2169%, a month - on - month increase of 0.79 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 34%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1 percentage point [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 562.55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 915.1743 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14.48%. The loss of asphalt processing increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to support the price in the short term [8]. - The basis on November 14 shows that the spot price in Shandong is 3010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 27 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [8]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02%; the in - plant inventory is 647,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 350,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.75%. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, while the in - plant and port inventories are increasing, showing a neutral situation [8]. - The disk shows that MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below MA20, showing a bearish situation [8]. - The net short position of the main contract is increasing, showing a bearish situation [8]. - In general, refineries have reduced production recently, the demand is affected by the off - season, and the overall demand is lower than expected. The inventory is stable, and crude oil is strengthening. The cost support is expected to strengthen in the short term, and the disk is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3012 - 3062 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Likely Positive Factors: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [10]. - Likely Negative Factors: The demand for high - priced asphalt is insufficient, and the overall demand is declining. The expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [11]. - Main Logic: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including their previous values and percentage changes [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [29][30]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: It presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: It presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [39]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The report shows the historical profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: It presents the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47]. - Production Volume: It presents the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The report shows the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [55]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: It presents the historical production volume of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [57]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The report shows the historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [60]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume: It presents the historical estimated maintenance loss volume trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The report shows the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [65][66][67]. - Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory: It presents the historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio: The report shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [72]. - Import and Export Situation - Export and Import Trends: It presents the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [75]. - Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: The report shows the historical import spread trend of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [78]. - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production: It presents the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [81]. - Apparent Consumption: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [84]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation: It presents the historical fixed - asset investment in highway construction and transportation from 2020 to 2025 [87]. - New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [88]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: It presents the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators from 2020 to 2025 [92][94]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: It presents the historical capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [96]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use: The report shows the historical capacity utilization rates of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [99]. - Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation: It presents the historical capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [101][103]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to November 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data [106].