Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of nickel is under short - term pressure, and the medium - to long - term transformation still needs to wait. The short - term cost line of nickel is loosening, the price of nickel iron is declining, but the ore price remains firm. The downstream demand is weak, and the production growth of stainless steel is limited. The substitution ratio of other batteries in the automotive field on the battery side is increasing in the short term, but there are certain expectations for the batteries of drones and robots in the future. Refined nickel may have short - term production reduction expectations, but its production is expected to increase in the medium - to long - term if there are profits. The price of stainless steel may continue to be under pressure and should be observed in conjunction with the price of nickel iron [1][66]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The report does not provide a detailed review of the Shanghai nickel price trend, but focuses on the supply - demand balance, new energy industry chain, and stainless steel industry chain [2][3] 2. Global Supply - Demand Balance - From 2020 to 2025E, the total supply of primary nickel is expected to increase from 2.56 million tons to 3.69 million tons, and the total demand is expected to increase from 2.43 million tons to 3.58 million tons. The production of pure nickel, nickel iron, and primary nickel salts shows different trends. For example, the production of NPI in China is decreasing, while that in Indonesia is increasing [5] 3. New Energy Industry Chain 3.1 New Energy Vehicles - In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 21.1% and 20%. From January to October, the production and sales were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 33.1% and 32.7% [8] 3.2 Power Batteries - In October 2025, the production and sales of power and other batteries were 170.6GWh and 166GWh respectively, with month - on - month increases of 12.9% and 13.3% and year - on - year increases of 50.5% and 50.8%. From January to October, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic power batteries was 578GWh, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 42.4%. In October, the single - month installed capacity was 84.1GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 42.1% [11] 3.3 Nickel Sulfate - In October 2025, China's nickel sulfate physical output was 228,600 tons, and the metal output was 50,300 tons (new sample), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%. In November, the expected metal output was 49,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous week, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged [14] 4. Stainless Steel Industry Chain 4.1 Nickel Ore - In November 2024, the total inventory of nickel ore in 14 ports in China was 15.0949 million wet tons, with an increase of 1.88%. In September 2025, the import volume of nickel ore was 6.1145 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.66% and a year - on - year increase of 33.91%. The ore price remained stable this week, and the RKAB quota in Indonesia was 319 million tons, with an expected loose supply [21] 4.2 Nickel Iron - The price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged, while the price of high - nickel iron decreased. In October 2025, China's nickel pig iron production was 22,900 tons of metal, with a month - on - month increase of 5.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. In September 2025, the import volume of nickel iron was 1.085 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 24.2% and a year - on - year increase of 47.2% [25][28][31] 4.3 Stainless Steel - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 112.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In October, the production of stainless steel crude steel was 3.4267 million tons, and the inventory increased. The production cost of cold - rolled stainless steel also showed certain changes [40][44][47] 5. Pure Nickel Market 5.1 Refined Nickel Production - In October 2025, China's refined nickel production was 33,345 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 9.38% and a year - on - year increase of 8.09%. The estimated production in November was 32,710 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.90% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.39% [54] 5.2 Refined Nickel Import and Export - In September 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 28,367.371 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 17.29% and a year - on - year increase of 407.65%. The export volume was 14,112.095 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.22% and a year - on - year increase of 36.94% [57] 5.3 Inventory - The LME inventory decreased by 1,014 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 3,386 tons. The total social inventory increased by 3,563 tons compared with before the holiday [60]
镍价短期承压，中长线转变仍需等待
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-17 05:35