工业硅期货早报-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply was 91,000 tons last week with no change from the previous week, while demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase. The cost support in Xinjiang has risen during the dry season. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8930 - 9110 [7]. - For polysilicon, last week's production decreased by 0.74% to 26,800 tons, and the November production plan is expected to decrease by 10.37% compared to the previous month. The overall demand shows a continuous decline. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53285 - 54805 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy shows different trends [7]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is at a loss of 2874 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [7]. - Basis: On November 14th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 330 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 546,000 tons, a 1.08% decrease; the sample enterprise inventory was 172,600 tons, a 0.35% increase; and the main port inventory was 127,000 tons, unchanged [7]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 01 contract price closed above the MA20 [7]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [8]. - Expectation: The supply production plan has decreased, and the demand recovery is at a low level. The cost support has increased. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8930 - 9110 [8]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 26,800 tons, a 0.74% decrease, and the November production plan is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease compared to the previous month [10]. - Demand: The production and demand of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are all in a downward trend, and the silicon wafer production is currently in a loss state [10]. - Cost: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon is 38,920 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,080 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On November 14th, the N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1745 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [10]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 267,000 tons, a 3.08% increase, and it is at a low level compared to historical data [10]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 01 contract price closed above the MA20 [10]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [10]. - Expectation: The supply production plan continues to decrease, the demand shows a continuous decline, and the cost support remains stable. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53285 - 54805 [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon market data includes prices, inventories, production, and opening rates of different contracts and regions. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 1.37% to 9020 yuan/ton, and the weekly social inventory was 546,000 tons, a 1.09% decrease [16]. - Polysilicon market data includes prices, inventories, production, and export/import data of different contracts and downstream products. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 0.28% to 54,045 yuan/ton, and the weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06% to 26.5 GW [18].