大越期货甲醇周报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the lack of demand highlights and persistent supply pressure, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate next week. Inland, although methanol factories in production areas, especially in the northern line of Inner Mongolia, have tight inventories and the current price is at a low level, which supports the price as most traders are cautious about short - selling. However, the inland methanol operation rate is high, the inter - regional goods circulation is active, and imported goods flow back into southern Shandong and even some into northern Shandong. The supply remains abundant, but the demand in the sales area is generally supported, and traders have no intention to hold goods for the time being. It is expected that the inland market will be in a stalemate and consolidation next week. In the port area, although the market sentiment has changed due to the potential reduction in overseas supply, there is actually no support for a reverse upward trend. It is expected that the port methanol market may fluctuate strongly at the bottom and wait for an opportunity to rebound. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of Iranian device maintenance and the overseas methanol transaction situation [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The demand for methanol has no highlights and the supply pressure persists. The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate next week. Inland and port markets have different situations as described above [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From November 7th to November 14th, the prices in different regions showed different trends. In Jiangsu, the price dropped from 2090 yuan/ton to 2047 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06%. In Shandong (Lunan), the price remained unchanged at 2310 yuan/ton. In Hebei, the price increased from 2070 yuan/ton to 2090 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.97%. In Inner Mongolia, the price dropped from 2000 yuan/ton to 1980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.00%. In Fujian, the price dropped from 2095 yuan/ton to 2050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.15% [6]. 3.2.2 Methanol Basis - From November 7th to November 14th, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu dropped from 2090 yuan/ton to 2047 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06%, and the futures price dropped from 2112 yuan/ton to 2055 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.70%. The basis increased from - 22 yuan/ton to - 8 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - For coal - based methanol, the profit dropped from - 36 yuan/ton on November 7th to - 61 yuan/ton on November 14th, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. For natural - gas - based methanol, the profit remained at - 40 yuan/ton. For coke - oven - gas - based methanol, the profit decreased from 106 yuan/ton to 123 yuan/ton, an increase of 320 yuan/ton (might be a data error in the original report) [10]. 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - Nationally, the methanol load decreased from 78.71% last week to 74.90% this week, a decrease of 3.81%. In the northwest region, the load decreased from 85.09% last week to 81.54% this week, a decrease of 3.55% [12]. 3.2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread - From November 7th to November 14th, the CFR China price dropped from 246 US dollars/ton to 239 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.85%. The CFR Southeast Asia price dropped from 322.5 US dollars/ton to 319.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.93%. The spread between them decreased from - 76.5 US dollars/ton to - 80.5 US dollars/ton [15]. 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spread - From November 7th to November 14th, the spot price dropped from 2090 yuan/ton to 2047 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06%, the import cost dropped from 2165 yuan/ton to 2106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.73%, and the import spread increased from - 75 yuan/ton to - 59 yuan/ton [18]. 3.2.7 Traditional Downstream Product Prices of Methanol - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from November 7th to November 14th, with no weekly change [25]. 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde: The production profit decreased from - 111 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 30.97% last week to 30.98% this week, an increase of 0.01% [26]. - Dimethyl ether: The production profit decreased from 611 yuan/ton to 582 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 8.34% last week to 9.79% this week, an increase of 1.45% [28]. - Acetic acid: The production profit increased from 251 yuan/ton to 274 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton, and the load decreased from 73.61% last week to 72.32% this week, a decrease of 1.29% [32]. 3.2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased from 12 yuan/ton to 138 yuan/ton. The MTO load decreased from 86.45% last week to 84.18% this week, a decrease of 2.27% [36]. 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory increased from 78.8 to 80.33, an increase of 1.53. In the South China port, the inventory decreased from 49.81 to 47.57, a decrease of 2.24 [37]. 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - The warehouse receipts increased from 10914 on November 7th to 11579 on November 14th, an increase of 6.09%. The effective forecasts remained at 0 on November 14th after reaching 1170 in the middle of the week [41]. 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. Different enterprises have different maintenance start and end times, raw materials, and maintenance losses [43]. 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - Overseas methanol production enterprises in different countries have different operation statuses. For example, some Iranian enterprises are in the process of restarting, and some Saudi and Malaysian enterprises are operating normally [44]. 3.3.3 Olefin - Related Device Operation in the Northwest - In the northwest region, some olefin - related enterprises have different operation statuses. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy is in maintenance, while some enterprises such as Yan'an Energy and Shenhua Yulin are running smoothly [45].