甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251117

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The current situation remains poor, with Iran's plant shutdown slower than expected. High imports are expected in November, making it difficult to resolve the contradictions in the 01 contract. It is anticipated that the port sanctions issue will be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland region. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect profits [2]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous period, and recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [7]. - Polypropylene: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Draw production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - grade caustic soda. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2065 to 2060, the South China spot price decreased from 2068 to 2048, and the Northwest discounted - to - futures price decreased from 2603 to 2580. The daily change on November 14 showed a 0 change in power coal futures, a - 17 change in Jiangsu spot price, and a - 25 change in the Northwest discounted - to - futures price [2]. Polyethylene - Price and Inventory Data: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price was mostly stable at 740 (except for November 14 with no data). The North China LL price increased from 6770 to 6830, and the two - oil inventory remained at 12067 on November 14. The daily change on November 14 showed a 40 increase in North China LL price and a 35 increase in import profit [7]. Polypropylene - Price and Inventory Data: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the Shandong propylene price increased from 5750 to 5790, the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 695, and the two - oil inventory remained at 14642. The daily change on November 14 showed a 30 increase in Shandong propylene price and a 65 increase in East China PP price [7]. PVC - Price and Profit Data: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price was mostly 2400 (except for November 14 with no data), the Shandong caustic soda price remained at 802, and the East China calcium carbide - based PVC price increased from 4570 to 4580. The daily change on November 14 showed a 10 increase in the East China calcium carbide - based PVC price [7].