大越期货PVC期货周报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend. Next week, demand may remain sluggish, with a slight increase in scheduled production and the futures price likely to adjust within a narrow range [5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The 01 contract declined this week, opening at 4,613 yuan/ton on Monday and closing at 4,608 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 0.10% [5] - Supply Side: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.70%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.51%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 343,550 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 134,910 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.08%. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and scheduled production may increase slightly [5] - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.54%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 36.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 40.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 71.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 78.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to fall, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [5] - Cost and Profit: The calcium carbide method profit was - 819.69 yuan/ton, with losses increasing by 6.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The ethylene method profit was - 491 yuan/ton, with losses increasing by 5.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,186.35 yuan/ton, with profits increasing by 0.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [6] - Inventory: Factory inventory was 322,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.65%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 242,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%. Ethylene factory inventory was 79,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.64%. Social inventory was 532,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.4 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.81%. Overall inventory is at a neutral level [6] 3.2 PVC Futures Market - Base Price Trend: Relevant charts show the base price trend of PVC from 2022 to 2025 [8][9] - Price and Volume Analysis: The price and trading volume trends of the main 01 contract from October to November 2025 are presented, including opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as moving averages of different periods [12] - Spread Analysis: The spread trends of the main contracts in 2024 and 2025 are shown [14][15] 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Products: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda from 2016 to 2025 [17][20][22][24][27] - PVC Supply Trend: The capacity utilization rates, profits, daily and weekly production, and maintenance volumes of calcium carbide and ethylene methods from 2018 to 2025 are presented [30][32] - Demand Trend: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of different downstream products of PVC from 2019 to 2025. It also shows the real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, and local government new special bonds [34][39][43][45] - Inventory Situation: The exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 are presented [46][47] - Ethylene Method - Related Data: The import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spreads from 2018 to 2025 are shown [48] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The monthly export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025 are presented [52] 3.4 Technical Analysis - The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week, and it is expected to adjust within a narrow range next week [57]