Report on the Steel Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The steel price is not highly valued but lacks upward momentum. Considering the accumulation of iron element inventory, the price is expected to maintain a weak downward trend. It is recommended to take a short - position in unilateral operations. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. The iron element chain has the basis for negative feedback, and going long is not recommended. The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage can be continued, but beware of the resumption of coal mine production for supply guarantee [2]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, unchanged in North and South China. Futures contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 increased by 5, 5, and 7 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East and North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, unchanged in South China. Futures contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 increased by 5, 2, and 2 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 20 yuan/ton, plate billet price remained unchanged. - The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 4 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 3 yuan/ton. - Profits of hot - rolled coils in East, North, and South China decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and rebar profits in East, North, and South China decreased by 15, 25, and 5 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Production, Inventory, and Demand - Production: The daily average pig iron output increased by 2.6 to 236.8 (1.1% increase). The output of five major steel products decreased by 22.4 to 834.4 (-2.6% decrease), rebar output decreased by 8.5 to 200.0 (-4.1% decrease), and hot - rolled coil output decreased by 4.5 to 313.7 (-1.4% decrease). - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 26.2 to 1477.4 (-1.7% decrease), rebar inventory decreased by 16.4 to 576.2 (-2.8% decrease), and hot - rolled coil inventory remained basically unchanged. - Demand: Building materials trading volume decreased by 0.2 to 10.4 (-1.9% decrease), the apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 6.3 to 860.6 (-0.7% decrease), rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.2 to 216.4 (-1.0% decrease), and hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 0.7 to 313.6 (-0.2% decrease) [2]. Report on the Iron Ore Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - After a rapid decline last week, the iron ore futures rebounded. Although the pig iron output increased this week, there is limited room for further growth. With the current profit margin and inventory level of steel mills, it is not enough to trigger negative feedback. It is expected that iron ore will show a high - level oscillating trend, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in unilateral operations [4]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The cost of some warehouse receipts decreased slightly, while the cost of Brazilian mixed powder increased by 2.2 yuan/ton (0.3% increase). - The basis of some 01 contracts decreased slightly, while the basis of Brazilian mixed powder increased by 2.2 yuan/ton (3.2% increase). - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 22.0 (-2.2% decrease), the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1.5 to - 51.0 (-3.0% decrease), and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.0 to 29.0 (7.4% increase) [4]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 144.8 to 3069.0 (-4.5% decrease) week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 477.2 to 2741.2 (-14.8% decrease). - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.7 to 236.9 (1.1% increase), the daily average port clearance volume increased by 6.0 to 327.0 (1.9% increase), and the monthly production of pig iron and crude steel decreased. - Inventory: The 45 - port inventory increased slightly, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 66.1 to 9076.0 (0.7% increase), and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Report on the Coke and Coking Coal Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Coke: The futures price showed an oscillating downward trend. Although there is still an expectation of price increase due to cost support, the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as an oscillating market with a range of 1650 - 1780 yuan/ton. A long - 01 and short - 05 arbitrage is recommended, but beware of the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices. - Coking coal: The futures price showed an oscillating downward trend. The spot price is still at a high level, but the downward space of the futures is limited. It is recommended to view it as an oscillating market with a range of 1170 - 1290 yuan/ton. A long - 01 and short - 05 arbitrage is recommended, but beware of the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [6]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Prices and Spreads - Coke: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, the 01 contract price decreased by 17 to 1670 (-1.0% decrease), and the 05 contract price decreased by 8 (-0.4% decrease). - Coking coal: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, the 01 contract price decreased by 22 to 1192 (-1.8% decrease), and the 05 contract price decreased by 11 to 1250 (-0.9% decrease) [6]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Supply: The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.6 to 63.0 (-0.9% decrease), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.2 (0.2% increase). The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 5.4 to 853.8 (0.6% increase). - Demand: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.7 to 236.9 (1.1% increase). - Inventory: Coke total inventory decreased by 7.7 to 879.4 (-0.9% decrease), coking coal inventory in some sectors increased, and in some sectors decreased [6].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20251117
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-17 06:26