原木期货日报-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to take a short - position when the price is high [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On November 14, 2025, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends. For example, the price of log 2601 was 788.5, up 5.0 (0.64%) from the previous day; log 2603 was 795.5, up 2.0 (0.25%); while log 2511 and log 2605 remained unchanged [2] - Spot Prices: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained stable, with a 0% change. The prices of different specifications of radiation pine and spruce in these ports did not change from the previous day [2] - Import Cost: The import theoretical cost on November 14 was 808.86 yuan, down 0.91 yuan from the previous day, with a 0% change. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.094, down 0.01 from the previous day, also with a 0% change [2] Supply - Monthly Supply: In October, the port shipping volume was 201.3 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 24.7 (13.99%) from September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54.0, up 8.0 (17.39%) [2] - Weekly Forecast (2025.11.10 - 2025.11.16): The number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 12, a decrease of 4 from the previous week, a 25% week - on - week decrease; the total arrival volume was about 39.5 (in ten thousand cubic meters), a decrease of 13.6 from the previous week, a 26% week - on - week decrease [3] Inventory - Main Port Inventory (Weekly): As of November 7, the total inventory in Chinese ports was 293.0 (in ten thousand cubic meters), an increase of 5.0 (1.74%) from October 31. In Shandong, it was 191.50 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 3.2 (1.70%); in Jiangsu, it was 82.45 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 0.2 (0.24%) [2][3] Demand - Weekly Demand: As of November 7, the average daily outbound volume in China was 6.63 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 0.35 (6%) from October 31. In Shandong, it was 3.79 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 0.60 (19%); in Jiangsu, it was 2.28 (in ten thousand cubic meters), down 0.15 (-6%) [3]