油脂产业期现日报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Palm Oil: In Malaysia, the expected record - high production in 2025 may pressure the benchmark price, but Indonesia's B85 policy supports the market. Dalian palm oil futures are in an upward - trending oscillation and may continue to strengthen in the short - term, but there is a risk of decline after facing resistance below 9000 yuan [1]. - Soybean Oil: The USDA report's less - than - expected reduction in US soybean production led to a decline in CBOT soybeans and soy oil. In China, high inventory and weak downstream demand may cause short - term callbacks in Dalian soybean oil [1]. - Corn: Due to factors like farmers' price - holding, logistics issues, and demand from deep - processing and feed sectors, corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance. The price may rebound but is limited by supply pressure, with attention on the 2200 - 2220 pressure level [3]. - Sugar: India's export policy and Brazil's approaching end of the harvest season make the sugar market relatively calm. The price of raw sugar is expected to oscillate around 14 cents/pound, and the domestic sugar market is likely to maintain an oscillating trend next week [7][8]. - Cotton: The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton prices. In China, the short - term pressure from new cotton supply and weak downstream demand are offset by the relatively low inventory of spinning enterprises, resulting in short - term price pressure within a range [9]. - Meal: The USDA's November report lacks significant positive factors. With high domestic soybean inventory and expected reserve rotation, the meal market is expected to have wide - range oscillations [11]. - Eggs: High egg production inventory and weak demand lead to a short - term supply - demand imbalance. Although the decline in egg prices has slowed and the willingness to support prices has increased, the market is expected to remain in a weak, oscillating state this week [15]. - Pigs: Weak spot prices and high market supply pressure the price, but there is support at low levels. The overall slow progress of November's planned slaughter may boost the price. The market is in an oscillating pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - Soybean Oil: On November 14, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8590 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8256 yuan/ton, down 0.72%; the basis was 334 yuan/ton, up 36.89% [1]. - Palm Oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8590 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the futures price of P2601 was 8644 yuan/ton, down 1.23%; the basis was - 54 yuan/ton, up 70.33%. The import cost was 9112.8 yuan/ton, down 0.76%, and the import profit was - 469 yuan/ton, down 8.89% [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10290 yuan/ton, up 0.29%; the futures price of OI601 was 9923 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the basis was 367 yuan/ton, up 28.77% [1]. - Spreads: The soybean oil 01 - 05 spread was 228 yuan/ton, up 2.70%; the palm oil 01 - 05 spread was - 116 yuan/ton, down 13.73%; the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread was 499 yuan/ton, up 1.63%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was 0 yuan/ton, up 100%; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread was - 732 yuan/ton, up 3.68%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1667 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: The price of corn 2601 at Jinzhou Port was 2185 - 2210 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.05% - 0.45%. The basis was 25 yuan/ton, up 78.57%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 67 yuan/ton, up 5.63%. The price at Shekou was 2330 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The import profit was 301 yuan/ton, up 5.00%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased by 11.15%. The position was 1859009, down 1.16% [3]. - Corn Starch: The price of corn starch 2601 was 2505 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot price in Changchun was 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang, it was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 5 yuan/ton, up 66.67%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 01 spread between starch and corn was 320 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The profit of Shandong starch was 35 yuan/ton, down 2.78%. The position was 301830, down 0.43% [3]. 3.3 Sugar - Futures Market: The price of sugar 2601 was 5470 yuan/ton, down 0.76%; the price of sugar 2605 was 5404 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 14.85 cents/pound, up 2.91%. The 1 - 5 spread was 66 yuan/ton, down 16.46%. The position of the main contract was 370242, down 2.99%. The number of warehouse receipts was 8622, up 11.67%; the effective forecast was 183, down 84.53% [7]. - Spot Market: The price in Nanning was 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, it was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis in Nanning was 256 yuan/ton, up 12.78%; in Kunming, it was 136 yuan/ton, up 27.10%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) was 3978 yuan/ton, down 1.41%; (outside quota) was 5036 yuan/ton, down 1.47% [7]. - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 tons, up 12.03%; the cumulative sales were 1048.00 tons, up 9.17%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.50 tons, up 4.59%. The monthly sales in Guangxi were 26.66 tons, down 41.20%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.90%, down 2.60%; in Guangxi, it was 93.90%, up 4.80%. The national industrial inventory was 68.21 tons, down 41.20%; in Guangxi, it was 44.21 tons, up 62.90%; in Yunnan, it was 33.65 tons, up 26.60%. Sugar imports were 55.00 tons, up 37.50% [7]. 3.4 Cotton - Futures Market: The price of cotton 2605 was 13470 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13450 yuan/ton, down 0.30%. The price of ICE US cotton was 64.14 cents/pound, down 0.68%. The 5 - 1 spread was 20 yuan/ton, up 300%. The position of the main contract was 556440, down 1.15%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4401, up 5.29%; the effective forecast was 643, down 26.77% [9]. - Spot Market: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton (3128B) was 14594 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The CC Index (3128B) was 14806 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The FC Index (M: 1%) was 12913 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The spread between 3128B and the 01 contract was 1124 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; between 3128B and the 05 contract was 1144 yuan/ton, up 1.78%. The spread between CC Index (3128B) and FC Index (M: 1%) was 1883 yuan/ton, up 1.23% [9]. - Industry Situation: The commercial inventory was 293.06 tons, up 70.4%; imports were 10.00 tons, up 42.9%; the bonded area inventory was 31.10 tons, up 8.0%. The inventory days of yarn were 26.12 days, up 3.5%. The cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang was 53.46 tons, up 22.6%. The immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises was - 1796.60 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 1471.00 billion yuan, up 19.5%. The year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textiles was 6.30%, up 34.0%. The year - on - year growth rate of textile yarn, fabric, and product exports was - 9.10%, down 242.1%; the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and clothing accessories exports was - 15.96%, down 100.2% [9]. 3.5 Meal - Soybean Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3060 yuan/ton, up 0.33%; the futures price of M2601 was 3092 yuan/ton, up 0.68%; the basis was - 32 yuan/ton, down 52.38%. The import crushing profit of Brazilian ships in February was - 7 yuan/ton, down 800% [11]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of RM2601 was 2490 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; the basis was 10 yuan/ton, up 25.00%. The import crushing profit of Canadian ships in January was 777 yuan/ton, down 3.48% [11]. - Soybeans: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin was 3920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4215 yuan/ton, up 2.08%; the basis was - 295 yuan/ton, down 41.15%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the second - grade soybean contract was 3803 yuan/ton, up 0.37%; the basis was 147 yuan/ton, down 8.70% [11]. - Spreads: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal was 244 yuan/ton, up 11.42%; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal was 65 yuan/ton, up 3.17%. The spot oil - meal ratio was 2.81, up 0.02%; the main - contract oil - meal ratio was 2.67, down 1.40%. The spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 560 yuan/ton, up 1.82%; the 2601 spread was 602 yuan/ton, up 3.97% [11]. 3.6 Eggs - Futures Market: The price of the 12 - contract was 3033 yuan/500KG, down 0.23%; the price of the 01 - contract was 3235 yuan/500KG, down 0.92%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 202 yuan/500KG, up 10.22% [15]. - Spot Market: The price in egg - producing areas was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.34%. The basis was - 51 yuan/500KG, down 6.54% [15]. - Related Indicators: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks was 2.80 yuan/feather, unchanged; the price of culled chickens was 4.04 yuan/jin, up 0.25%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.34, down 1.68%. The breeding profit was - 26.52 yuan/feather, down 8.51% [15]. 3.7 Pigs - Futures Market: The basis of the main contract was 582 yuan/ton, up 103.57%. The price of the 2605 - contract was 12195 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; the price of the 2601 - contract was 11775 yuan/ton, down 0.72%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 420 yuan/ton, down 12.00%. The position of the main contract was 130675, down 3.05% [17]. - Spot Market: The price in Henan was 12060 yuan/ton, up 60.0; in Shandong, it was 12190 yuan/ton, up 140.0; in Sichuan, it was 11340 yuan/ton, down 60.0; in Liaoning, it was 11640 yuan/ton, up 140.0; in Guangdong, it was 12450 yuan/ton, down 160.0; in Hunan, it was 11440 yuan/ton, down 70.0; in Hebei, it was 11970 yuan/ton, up 70.0 [17]. - Related Indicators: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 162927, down 0.74%. The weekly white - strip price was 18.60 yuan, unchanged. The weekly price of piglets was 17.25 yuan/kg, up 1.47%; the weekly price of sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly slaughter weight was 128.48 kg, up 0.14%. The weekly self - breeding profit was - 115 yuan/head, down 28.70%; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 206 yuan/head, down 17.15%. The monthly number of fertile sows was 40350000, down 0.07% [17].