广发期货《农产品》日报-20251117

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Oils and Fats: Malaysian palm oil production may pressure prices, but the Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy provides support. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise, but there is a risk of resistance below 9000 yuan. For soybeans, the USDA report led to a decline in CBOT soybeans, and domestic soybean oil inventories are high with weak demand. Dalian soybean oil may correct in the short term [1]. - Corn and Corn Starch: Corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance, leading to a rebound in the futures market, but the supply pressure limits the upside. Attention should be paid to the 2200 - 2220 pressure level [3]. - Sugar: The Indian sugar export policy and the end of the Brazilian harvest result in a relatively calm fundamental situation. The raw sugar price is expected to consolidate around 14 cents/pound. The domestic sugar market is expected to remain volatile next week [7][8]. - Cotton: The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet is bearish for cotton prices. Domestically, new cotton supply is short - term concentrated, and downstream demand is weak, but local product demand provides some support. Cotton prices may be under pressure in the short term [9]. - Meal: The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet lacks significant information. There is no substantial bullish factor for US soybeans, and domestic soybean inventories are high. The soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate widely [11]. - Eggs: The supply of eggs is abundant, and demand is weak. Although the decline in egg prices has not widened, there is insufficient positive support. The market is expected to be weak and volatile this week [15]. - Pigs: The spot pig price is weak, but there is support at low levels. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [17]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - Soybean Oil: On November 14, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8590 yuan/ton (+0.35%), the futures price of Y2601 was 8256 yuan/ton (-0.72%), and the basis was 334 yuan/ton (+36.89%) [1]. - Palm Oil: The spot price in Guangdong was 8590 yuan/ton (+0.23%), the futures price of P2601 was 8644 yuan/ton (-1.23%), and the basis was - 54 yuan/ton (+70.33%). The import cost was 9112.8 yuan/ton (-0.76%), and the import profit was - 469 yuan/ton (-8.89%) [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10290 yuan/ton (+0.29%), the futures price of OI601 was 9923 yuan/ton (-0.52%), and the basis was 367 yuan/ton (+28.77%) [1]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: The 2601 contract price at Jinzhou Port was 2185 - 2210 yuan/ton, the basis was 25 yuan/ton (+78.57%), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 67 yuan/ton (+5.63%). The import profit was 301 yuan/ton (+5.00%) [3]. - Corn Starch: The 2601 contract price was 2505 yuan/ton (-0.08%), the basis was 5 yuan/ton (+66.67%), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 76 yuan/ton (0.00%) [3]. Sugar - Futures Market: The price of sugar 2601 was 5470 yuan/ton (-0.76%), and the 1 - 5 spread was 66 yuan/ton (-16.46%). The ICE raw sugar主力 was 14.85 cents/pound (+2.91%) [7]. - Spot Market: The price in Nanning was 5660 yuan/ton (0.00%), and the Nanning basis was 256 yuan/ton (+12.78%) [7]. - Industry Situation: National sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, and sales increased by 9.17% year - on - year [7]. Cotton - Futures Market: The price of cotton 2605 was 13470 yuan/ton (-0.19%), and the 5 - 1 spread was 20 yuan/ton (+300.00%). The ICE US cotton主力 was 64.14 cents/pound (-0.68%) [9]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14594 yuan/ton (-0.14%), and the 3128B - 01 contract basis was 1124 yuan/ton (+0.45%) [9]. - Industry Situation: Commercial inventory increased by 70.4% month - on - month, and the textile and clothing retail sales increased by 19.5% month - on - month [9]. Meal - Soybean Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3060 yuan/ton (+0.33%), the futures price of M2601 was 3092 yuan/ton (+0.68%), and the basis was - 32 yuan/ton (-52.38%). The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule import profit was - 7 yuan/ton (-800.0%) [11]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2500 yuan/ton (0.00%), the futures price of RM2601 was 2490 yuan/ton (-0.08%), and the basis was 10 yuan/ton (+25.00%) [11]. Eggs - Futures Market: The price of the 12 - contract was 3033 yuan/500KG (-0.23%), and the 12 - 01 spread was - 202 yuan/500KG (+10.22%) [15]. - Spot Market: The egg price in the production area was 2.98 yuan/jin (-0.34%), and the basis was - 51 yuan/500KG (-6.54%) [15]. Pigs - Futures Market: The price of the main contract was 11775 yuan/ton (-0.72%), and the main contract basis was 582 yuan/ton (+103.57%) [17]. - Spot Market: The price in Henan was 12060 yuan/ton (+0.50%), and the sample point daily slaughter volume was 162927 (-0.74%) [17].