宏观经济周报-20251117

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index remains in the expansion zone, showing a slight recovery, indicating a transition towards normalization in economic conditions[1] - The industrial added value for the first ten months of 2025 increased by 6.1% year-on-year, with a monthly growth of 4.9% in October[2] - The production sentiment index significantly rebounded this week, becoming a key driver for the composite index[1] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) showed slight growth, with a 1.7% increase when excluding real estate development investment[2] - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7%, while high-tech industry investment continued to thrive, with information services and aerospace manufacturing investments increasing by 32.7% and 19.7% respectively[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3% year-on-year in the first ten months, with online retail sales of physical goods growing by 6.3%[3] Global Economic Context - The UK unemployment rate rose to 5% as of September, exceeding market expectations, indicating a cooling labor market[7] - Germany's consumer price index increased by 2.3% year-on-year in October, consistent with market expectations[7] - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 43 days, with an estimated GDP loss of about 1.5% for Q4 2025 due to the shutdown's impact on economic activities[8]