Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the lithium carbonate industry dated November 17, 2025, providing data on various aspects of the lithium carbonate market and related industries, along with market analysis and operation suggestions [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth. The demand growth rate and expectations are good, driving the continuous decline of industrial inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct light - position, range - bound and bullish trading while controlling risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 95,200 yuan/ton, up 7,840 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 193,284 lots, down 2,348 lots; the position of the main contract is 562,954 lots, up 46,176 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is 360 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 26,953 lots/ton, down 217 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 86,150 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 83,800 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 9,050 yuan/ton, down 6,840 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 999 US dollars/ton, up 47 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 9,825 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 3,471 yuan/ton, up 111 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 51,530 tons, up 4,390 tons; the monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 160,000 yuan/ton, up 8,500 yuan; the price of lithium manganate is 33,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 165,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 146,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 157,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 37,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 64%, up 5%; the monthly production volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,772,000 vehicles, up 155,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,715,000 vehicles, up 111,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 12,943,000 vehicles, up 3,193,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 256,000 vehicles, up 34,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 2,014,000 vehicles, up 956,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 45.33%, up 9.45%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 35.2%, up 6.4%; the total call option position is 178,261 lots, up 10,652 lots; the total put option position is 138,513 lots, up 5,006 lots; the total position put - call ratio is 77.7%, down 1.9515%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.34%, down 0.0043% [2] 3.7 Industry News - In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year; the total retail sales of consumer goods was 462.91 billion yuan, up 2.9% year - on - year [2] - As of the end of September, China's new energy storage installed capacity exceeded 100 million kilowatts, more than 30 times that at the end of the 13th Five - Year Plan, accounting for more than 40% of the world's total installed capacity, ranking first in the world. Some power supply and power enterprises' energy storage system orders are scheduled until next year [2] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman Li Liangbin predicts that in 2026, the demand for lithium carbonate will increase by 30% to 1.9 million tons, and the supply capacity is estimated to increase by about 250,000 tons, with basic balance between supply and demand. If the demand growth rate exceeds 30% next year, even reaches 40%, the supply cannot be balanced in the short term, and the price may exceed 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton [2] - Zhongqi Xineng's Huang Ling said that the installed capacity of solid - liquid hybrid batteries will climb to 100,000 units next year. The energy density of liquid batteries has reached the ceiling of 300 Wh/kg, but there are still challenges for all - solid - state batteries with an energy density of > 400 Wh/kg to achieve large - scale mass production, and the next 3 - 5 years is the critical window period for the commercialization of solid - liquid hybrid batteries [2] - The lithium - battery industry chain has seen a wave of price increases. The price of vinylene carbonate, an electrolyte additive, has skyrocketed. On November 12, the average price increased by 68% to 110,000 yuan/ton, and the spot transaction price reached 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton. The main reasons are strong downstream demand, tight supply, and the shutdown and maintenance of a large manufacturer [2] 3.8 View Summary - The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth. The demand growth rate and expectations are good, driving the continuous decline of industrial inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are expanding. It is recommended to conduct light - position, range - bound and bullish trading while controlling risks [2]
瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20251117
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-17 10:34