瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20251117

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Monday, the I2601 contract rose. Macroscopically, many places in Henan and Hebei lifted the emergency response for heavy - pollution weather. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased this period, the arrival volume decreased, and domestic port inventories continued to rise; the utilization rate of steel mill blast furnace capacity and pig iron output stopped falling and rebounded, strengthening demand support. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising. The market may remain oscillating and relatively strong, and risk control should be emphasized [2]. 3. Detailed Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 788.50 yuan/ton, up 16.00 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract is 481,401 lots, up 1,021 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 21,825 lots, up 2,935 lots. The spread between the I 1 - 5 contracts is 32 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt of the Dalian Commodity Exchange for I is 900 lots, with no change. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 104.35 US dollars/ton as of 15:00, up 1.76 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 858 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore is 850 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 761 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) is 62 yuan, down 14 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 103.60 US dollars/ton, with no change. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.13, down 0.01. The estimated import cost is 844 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 3,516.40 million tons, up 447.40 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,369.90 million tons, down 399.40 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 15,812.84 million tons, up 188.71 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,076.01 million tons, up 66.07 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,130.90 million tons, down 502.10 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) are 23 days, with no change. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 40.43 million tons, up 0.44 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 63.74%, up 0.78%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.52 million tons, down 2.31 million tons. The BDI index is 2,125.00, up 48.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 23.51 US dollars/ton, up 0.73 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.295 US dollars/ton, up 0.26 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 82.79%, down 0.36%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 88.82%, up 1.03%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 7,200 million tons, down 149 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 17.92%, up 1.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.81%, up 0.78%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 26.01%, up 11.67%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 18.65%, up 2.56% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From November 10th to November 16th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,516.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 447.4 million tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,908.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 360.1 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia was 2,050.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 239.6 million tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,873.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 339.0 million tons. The shipment volume from Brazil was 858.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 120.5 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,369.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 399.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,268.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 472.3 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,041.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 484.5 million tons [2].