瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - L2601 showed a weak and fluctuating trend, closing at 6,843 yuan/ton. Last week, some plants such as Hengli Petrochemical, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, and Zhongsha Petrochemical stopped for maintenance, but the impact days were limited. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's Line 3 restarted, leading to a month-on-month increase in PE production and capacity utilization. The downstream agricultural film operating rate remained stable, while the packaging film operating rate decreased slightly. The production enterprise inventory increased significantly, the social inventory decreased slightly, and the total inventory increased. The oil-based cost decreased slightly, the coal-based cost increased slightly, and the losses of oil-based and coal-based processes deepened. This week, there is a new maintenance plant at Zhongying Petrochemical, and plants such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Zhongsha Petrochemical, and Shanghai Petrochemical are expected to restart, with little expected change in PE production and capacity utilization. In November, there is less new maintenance capacity for PE, and at the same time, two new plants in Guangxi Petrochemical continue to increase production, resulting in high supply pressure. The demand for northern greenhouse films is gradually declining, while the demand for southern greenhouse films still provides support. The agricultural film orders and operating rate are expected to fluctuate slightly; the packaging film orders are marginally weakening, with limited demand follow-up. In terms of cost, OPEC's production increase will continue until the end of the year, and the situation of strong crude oil supply and weak demand is expected to continue, but the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela in the geopolitical aspect may intensify, and there are both long and short factors affecting international oil prices. In the short term, L2601 is expected to fluctuate, with the range expected to be around 6,750 - 6,950 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6,843 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 6,853 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 6,915 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 6,956 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 206,820 lots, a decrease of 140,705 lots; the open interest was 542,295 lots, an increase of 1,540 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was -62, an increase of 13. The long position volume of the top 20 futures holders was 455,519 lots, a decrease of 30,427 lots; the short position volume was 558,690 lots, a decrease of 22,722 lots; the net long position volume was -103,171 lots, a decrease of 7,705 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.91 yuan; the average price in East China was 7,118.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.14 yuan [2] - The basis was 107, an increase of 23.91 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.27 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.87 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 577.38 US dollars per ton, an increase of 8.25 US dollars [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 726 US dollars per ton, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 736 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 83.14%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 50.41%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 31.67%, unchanged; the operating rate of PE agricultural films was 49.96%, unchanged [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 8.89%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.68%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene was 10.81%, a decrease of 0.85 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 10.81%, a decrease of 0.85 percentage points [2] Industry News - From November 7th to 13th, China's total polyethylene production was 673,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.98%; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 83.14%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points compared with the previous period [2] - From November 7th to 13th, the average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products was 0.4% lower than the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural films was the same as the previous period, and the operating rate of PE packaging films was 0.4% lower than the previous period [2] - As of November 12th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 529,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.96%; as of November 7th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 50,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.86% [2] - From November 8th to 14th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.98 to 7,256 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the profit decreased by 35.43 yuan/ton to - 405.86 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 2.43% to 7,051 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the profit decreased by 211.57 yuan/ton to - 182.57 yuan/ton [2]