瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate supply in the raw material end of the fundamentals remains tight, and the copper cost support logic still exists. On the supply side, smelters' profit environment is poor due to weak processing fees and high costs, and smelting capacity may be limited. The total domestic refined copper supply is still at a high level but the growth rate has slowed down. On the demand side, the high copper price may suppress the downstream purchasing enthusiasm to some extent, and the spot market trading sentiment is dull. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where the supply growth rate slows down and the demand is temporarily stable, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.26, and the option market sentiment is bullish, with the implied volatility slightly decreasing. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis and the green bars are slightly expanding. The operation suggestion is to lightly go long on dips and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,829.50 dollars/ton, a decrease of 22.50 dollars. The main contract's open interest is 179,927 lots, a decrease of 12,366 lots. The LME copper inventory is 135,725 tons, a decrease of 450 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 109,407 tons, a decrease of 5,628 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 585 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 32 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.50 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, a decrease of 17.20 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 77,400 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 190 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 78,100 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 190 yuan. The rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.21 dollars/thousand tons, a decrease of 0.17 dollars. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 126.60 million tons, a decrease of 3.50 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 438,000 tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The output of copper products is 223.20 million tons, an increase of 1.00 million tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The cumulative value of grid infrastructure investment is 4,378.07 billion yuan, an increase of 582.31 billion yuan; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 73,563 billion yuan, an increase of 5,857.29 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,180,000 thousand pieces, a decrease of 191,236.10 thousand pieces. [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 15.89%, a decrease of 0.31%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.46%, a decrease of 0.08%. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility is 15.8%, a decrease of 0.0030; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.26, an increase of 0.0363. [2]