大越期货纯碱周报-20251117

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated narrowly, with the main contract SA2601 closing 1.32% higher than the previous week at 1,226 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous week. Supply has narrow fluctuations, and next week's output is expected to increase slightly to 740,000 tons with a capacity utilization rate of 85%. Demand from downstream industries is average, and they mainly replenish inventory on a just - in - time basis. As of November 13, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7073 million tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1,226 yuan/ton, up 1.32% from the previous value. - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous value. - The main basis was - 56 yuan/ton, up 1.82% from the previous value [8]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [14]. 3.3 Fundamentals - Supply - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 103.50 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process was - 232 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [17]. - 开工率、产能产量: The weekly industry operating rate was 84.80%. The weekly output was 739,200 tons, including 410,900 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level. The weekly production heavy - soda ratio was 55.54% [20][22][24]. - Industry Capacity Changes: In 2023, the newly added capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly added capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [25]. 3.4 Fundamentals - Demand - 产销率: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 100.93% [28]. - 下游需求: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 159,100 tons, with an operating rate of 75% [31]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Inventory The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7073 million tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [38]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [39].