2025年10月中国可持续航空燃料行业新图景：电气SAF篇

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry, but it emphasizes the potential for significant growth and development in the electric SAF sector, particularly in China [4][5]. Core Insights - The aviation industry faces increasing pressure to reduce carbon emissions, with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) targeting net-zero emissions by 2050. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is identified as a key solution to achieve this goal [4][7]. - Electric SAF, produced from renewable electricity, water, and captured CO2, is seen as a necessary complement to biomass SAF due to its higher reduction potential and theoretical production capacity [4][9]. - The report highlights that while electric SAF has a promising future, it currently faces high production costs, limiting its commercial viability in the short term [12][39]. - China is positioned to play a significant role in the global electric SAF market due to its advanced renewable energy capabilities and potential for cost-effective production [5][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Research Background and Overview of SAF Development - The aviation sector's carbon emissions have been growing rapidly, necessitating urgent action for reduction. SAF is viewed as the most effective means for the aviation industry's green transition [4][7]. - Electric SAF is distinguished from biomass SAF by its raw materials and production processes, offering greater sustainability and long-term scalability [33]. 2. Global Development Status of Electric SAF - The global SAF market is experiencing rapid growth, with production expected to reach 1.25 billion liters (approximately 1 million tons) in 2024, doubling from 2023 [11]. - Over 40 airlines have committed to using SAF, with projections of approximately 14 million tons of SAF usage by 2030 [11]. - Electric SAF is still in the early stages of commercialization, primarily represented by demonstration plants and small-scale projects [12]. 3. Technical Route Analysis of Electric SAF - Electric SAF technology can be categorized into three main modules: green hydrogen production, CO2 capture, and liquid fuel synthesis. The main synthesis pathways include Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FT) and methanol-to-jet (MtJ) [44]. - The report notes that while biomass SAF currently dominates the market, electric SAF is expected to overcome existing challenges and become a major production technology by 2035 [39]. 4. Production Potential Analysis of Major Countries - The report evaluates the production potential and cost structure of electric SAF in China, the US, Germany, and Saudi Arabia, highlighting China's advantages in renewable energy and green hydrogen production [5][20]. - It emphasizes the need for clear long-term development goals and supportive policies to foster the electric SAF industry in China [5]. 5. Future Global Market Development Trends - The report predicts that by 2035, electric SAF will play a crucial role in the global SAF supply and demand landscape, with China emerging as a key player [5][20]. 6. Key Conclusions - Electric SAF has greater decarbonization potential but faces high costs until 2035, making it difficult to compete effectively with biomass SAF in the short term [5][39]. - The development of electric SAF is not only vital for the aviation industry's energy efficiency and emissions reduction but also serves as a new driver for economic growth and job creation in China [5].