农产品早报-20251118

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is dated November 18, 2025, and is from the Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data - From November 11 - 17, 2025, the price in Changchun remained at 2070, while prices in Jinzhou increased by 20 and decreased by 20 in some periods; the price in Shekou increased by 10. The base difference increased by 23, and the trade profit decreased by 10 [3] Core Views - Short - term: Driven by supply tightening in production areas and downstream restocking demand, corn prices have started to rise. Farmers' reluctance to sell delays the release of selling pressure. Starch prices follow raw material prices, but high inventory suppresses starch prices due to slow downstream restocking [4] - Long - term: The corn market supply - demand pattern remains tight, and planting costs support prices. After the release of farmers' selling pressure, corn prices may start a new upward cycle. For starch, downstream consumption rhythm is the key to price trends [4] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From November 11 - 17, 2025, the Zhengzhou futures warehouse receipt remained at 8805 [5] Core Views - Short - term: Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by import quota management and syrup pre - mixed powder import control than the foreign market. Domestic sugar cost is the key support before new quota licenses are issued [5] - Long - term: If the global sugar market surplus intensifies, domestic sugar cost may be temporarily broken through. The global and domestic sugar supply is loose, and a short - selling strategy is maintained, but the downward space is limited in the short term [5] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data - From November 11 - 17, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 40, and the warehouse receipt + forecast increased by 174. The price of cotton yarn decreased by 10, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 32 [7] Core Views - New cotton procurement is almost completed, and the total output forecast is lowered. The positive outcome of the China - US meeting in Busan is beneficial to textile exports, and the valuation is unlikely to return to the April low, making long - term long positions suitable [7] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From November 13 - 17, 2025, the price in some production areas remained stable, and the price difference decreased by 0.08 [13] Core Views - Supply: Orderly chicken culling and a decrease in new layer hens relieve supply pressure. Demand: Cool weather allows longer egg storage, and some traders build rolling inventories. The price center in production areas moves up slightly. Monitoring the culling rhythm is important as accelerated culling can drive prices up [13] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From November 11 - 17, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8000.00, and the national inventory increased by 132, with Shandong and Shaanxi inventories increasing by 177 and 95 respectively [14][15] Core Views - National apple storage is almost complete. The estimated national cold - storage inventory is about 5.5%, 10% less than last year. The average opening price is above 3.5 yuan/jin, and good - quality apples are scarce. The price is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [15] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From November 11 - 17, 2025, prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.30, 0.20, 0.20, 0.25, and 0.30 respectively, and the base difference decreased by 220 [15] Core Views - Short - term: Northern markets are weak, and southern markets are stable. The market is in a weak shock game. Mid - term: Supply pressure remains due to un - reduced production capacity, and attention should be paid to factors such as delivery rhythm, diseases, and policies. Track capital sentiment under high open interest [15]