广发早知道：汇总版-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each sector, and provides corresponding investment suggestions. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: A - share market showed narrow - range fluctuations. TMT sectors rose, while pro - cyclical sectors pulled back slightly. The four major index futures contracts declined with the index, and the basis discount fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for stabilization and mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and consider deploying a bull spread of put options in case of a sharp decline [2][3][4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The equity market declined, and treasury bond futures oscillated strongly. The bond market was in a state of narrow - range oscillation due to the unclear expectation of loose money. It is recommended to operate within the range for the TL2512 contract [5][6]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: Fed officials' attitudes towards the December interest - rate cut were still divided. Precious metals maintained a weak oscillation. In the long - term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market, but in the short - term, market fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to buy on dips for gold and try to go long in small positions for silver [7][8][9]. Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The SCFIS European Line Index and the SCFI Composite Index declined. The futures market rose on the previous day, but the significant decline in the SCFIS European Line after the market may lead to a short - term correction followed by an upward movement. It is expected to oscillate upward in the short - term [10][11]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The market was cautious, and copper prices oscillated. The supply of copper concentrate was tight, and the downstream demand was resilient. The copper price is expected to oscillate within the range of 85000 - 87500 [11][13][14]. - Alumina: The market was in a state of loose supply and demand, and the price oscillated at a low level. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [16][17][18]. - Aluminum: After breaking through the 22000 mark, it adjusted downward. It is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract ranging from 21400 - 22000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go short on rallies [18][19][20]. - Aluminum Alloy: It adjusted following the aluminum price, and the spot trading was cold at high prices. It is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract ranging from 20600 - 21200 yuan/ton [21][22][23]. - Zinc: The LME delivery expectation increased, and zinc prices oscillated and adjusted. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 22000 - 22800 [23][24][26]. - Tin: The supply side remained tight, and tin prices oscillated at a high level. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips after the market sentiment stabilizes [26][27][29]. - Nickel: The market was weak, and the fundamental improvement was insufficient. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 116000 - 122000 [30][31][32]. - Stainless Steel: The macro - drive weakened, and the raw materials were under pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12300 - 12700 [33][34][36]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market was strong, and multiple contracts hit the daily limit. It is recommended to wait and see, and the market is expected to oscillate widely [37][38][40]. - Polysilicon: The demand was weak, and the futures price oscillated and declined. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [41][42][43]. - Industrial Silicon: It oscillated, and attention should be paid to the organic silicon production cuts. It is expected to oscillate within the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [43][44][45]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: The apparent demand declined, the hot - rolled coil supply was not cleared, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar converged. It is recommended to try short - selling [46][47][49]. - Iron Ore: The shipment increased, the arrival decreased, the port inventory rose, and the molten iron increased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [50][52][53]. - Coking Coal: The spot price fluctuated, and the demand for replenishment was bearish. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the range of 1100 - 1250, and it is recommended to wait and see [54][55][59]. - Coke: The fourth round of price increase was fully implemented, and the port trading price declined. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the range of 1600 - 1750, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61][64]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The monthly report lacked positive factors, and both domestic and foreign markets adjusted. The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate widely [65][66][68]. - Live Pigs: The supply and demand were loose, and the pig price oscillated weakly. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread [69][70]. - Corn: There was a short - term supply shortage, and the price rebounded and oscillated. Attention should be paid to the selling rhythm and procurement progress [71][72]. - Sugar: The raw sugar price was bearish, and the domestic market oscillated at the bottom. It is expected to maintain the bottom - oscillation trend [73][74][75]. - Cotton: The US cotton oscillated at the bottom, and the domestic new - cotton harvest was coming to an end. The cotton price is expected to be under pressure and run weakly in the short - term [75][76]. - Eggs: The egg price was stable with a slight decline, and the overall pressure was still high. It is recommended to gradually close short positions below 3000 for the 2512 contract [77]. - Oils and Fats: The Malaysian palm oil oscillated and adjusted, and the Dalian palm oil maintained range - bound trading. The soybean oil market was supported. The palm oil is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the soybean oil is expected to maintain a stable supply - demand situation [78][79][80]. - Jujubes: The spot price was weak, and the market oscillated weakly. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the acquisition progress and terminal demand [81]. - Apples: There was a small amount of trading of stored apples, and the demand for high - quality apples was good. The price of high - quality apples in the western region was stable, and the inventory of small apples in Shandong began to be traded [83]. Energy Chemicals - PX: The overseas blending - oil demand boosted the short - term trend, but the driving force was limited. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the pressure above 6800 [84][85]. - PTA: The blending - oil demand and the cancellation of the Indian BIS certification supported the short - term trend, but the upward driving force was limited. It is expected to oscillate within the range of 4500 - 4800, and the TA1 - 5 spread should be treated with a rolling reverse - spread strategy [86][87]. - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand expectation was weak, and the processing fee was gradually compressed. It is recommended to do the same as PTA for the unilateral strategy and shrink the processing fee on rallies [88]. - Bottle - Chip: The supply - demand situation in November remained loose, and the price and processing fee followed the cost. It is recommended to do the same as PTA for the unilateral strategy, and the processing fee is expected to oscillate within the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [89][90]. - Ethylene Glycol: The short - term rigid demand was supported, but the supply was high, and the port inventory increased. It is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price not lower than 4100 for the EG2601 contract and conduct a reverse - spread operation on rallies for the EG1 - 5 spread [92]. - Pure Benzene: The blending - oil demand provided support, but the supply - demand was loose, and the rebound space was limited. It is recommended to wait and see for the BZ2603 contract [93]. - Styrene: The blending - oil demand provided support, but the maintenance might be postponed, and the rebound space was limited. The EB12 price may be strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 6600 - 6700 [94][95]. - LLDPE: The price changed little, and the trading was weak. It is recommended to reduce short positions around 6800 [96]. - PP: There were many unexpected maintenance events, and the downward space was limited. It is recommended to wait and see [97]. - Methanol: The port market continued to weaken, and the trading was average. Attention should be paid to the 05MTO spread contraction [98][99]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pressure still existed, and it is expected to run weakly [99][100]. - PVC: The supply - demand surplus situation remained unchanged, and the market oscillated weakly. It is expected to continue the bottom - weakening trend [101]. - Soda Ash: After the spot price dropped, the alkali factory's pending - delivery days increased, and the market rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for the opportunity to short on rallies [102][103]. - Glass: The spot sales weakened significantly, and the market was under pressure to correct. It is recommended to treat it weakly in the short - term [102][104]. - Natural Rubber: The overseas raw materials were firm, and the rubber price rose slightly. It is expected to oscillate within the range, and attention should be paid to the raw - material output in the peak - production season [104][105][106]. - Synthetic Rubber: The supply - demand boost was limited, and the cost side was weak. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies for the BR2601 contract and pay attention to the pressure around 10800 [107][108][109].