芳烃橡胶早报-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, near - term TA has partial device maintenance, with开工 decreasing, polyester load dropping, inventory accumulating, and basis remaining weak. Spot processing fees improve slightly. PX has a good pattern, and opportunities for positive spreads and expanding processing fees should be noted [3]. - For MEG, near - term domestic oil - based production increases, coal - based production has partial maintenance and load reduction, overall operation decreases, and inventory accumulates. In the short - term, EG inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but the supply may decrease, and the long - term pattern is expected to weaken [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, near - term device operation is stable, production and sales are weak, and inventory accumulates. Although the downstream has no obvious improvement, short - fiber exports are growing, and opportunities for expanding processing fees and the situation of warehouse receipts should be noted [3]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Margin Changes: From November 11 - 17, crude oil decreased by $0.2, PTA internal - market spot decreased by $20, and polyester margin increased by 37. The average daily transaction basis of PTA spot is 2601(-71) [3]. - Device Changes: Sichuan Energy Investment's 1 million - ton device is under maintenance [3]. - Outlook: TA will maintain a high - maintenance state, downstream pressure is not obvious, and the inventory accumulation slope is not high. Opportunities for positive spreads and expanding processing fees should be noted [3]. MEG - Price and Margin Changes: From November 11 - 17, MEG outer - market price decreased by $3, and MEG coal - based profit remained unchanged. The basis of MEG spot is around 01(+40) [3]. - Device Changes: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device, Huayi's 200,000 - ton device are under maintenance, and Zhenhai's 800,000 - ton device restarts [3]. - Outlook: In the short - term, EG inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but the supply may decrease. The long - term pattern is expected to weaken [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Margin Changes: From November 11 - 17, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by $15, and short - fiber profit remained unchanged. The spot price is around 6297, and the market basis is around 12 - 20 [3]. - Device Changes: No device maintenance information [3]. - Outlook: Although the downstream has no obvious improvement, short - fiber exports are growing, and opportunities for expanding processing fees and the situation of warehouse receipts should be noted [3]. Natural Rubber - Price Changes: From November 11 - 17, the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 105, and the price of Thai cup - rubber remained unchanged. The weekly change of RU main contract is 205, and that of NR main contract is 190 [6]. - Key Relationships: The basis of mixed - RU main contract decreased by 125, and the processing profit of Thai standard remained at 15 [6]. - Outlook: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. Styrene - Price Changes: From November 11 - 17, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, and styrene (CFR China) increased by 2. The daily change of PS (East China transparent benzene) is 20, and that of styrene domestic profit is - 55 [9].