LPG早报-20251118

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PG main contract is running strongly. The basis is 1 (-101), and the 12 - 01 month spread is 93 (+21). The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4364 (-10), Shandong at 4440 (+60), and South China at 4460 (+10); ether - after carbon four is 4630 (+130). The international propane market is in a loose pattern, and the domestic chemical market is strong with the expectation of the civil market strengthening in the peak season, but the futures price is over - valued. Attention should be paid to the weather and the situation of cold snaps in the US [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Changes - On Monday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4364 (+0), in Shandong was 4400 (+0), and in South China was 4390 (-70). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4670 (+40). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of -28 (-42) and a 12 - 01 month spread of 82 (-12). FEI was 503 (+1) and CP was 483 (+2) dollars per ton [4]. Weekly Views - The PG main contract showed a strong trend. The basis decreased by 101, and the 12 - 01 month spread increased by 21. The prices of the cheapest deliverable in different regions and ether - after carbon four changed. The outer - market paper goods rose, the oil - gas ratio weakened slightly, the month spread strengthened, and the internal - external price difference weakened. The premium strengthened, and the freight weakened slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread decreased, the naphtha crack spread changed little, and remained at a relatively high level this year. The profit of Shandong PDH to produce propylene recovered slightly, the profit of alkylation units worsened, the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit was still good. Domestic production decreased slightly, arrivals were limited, factory inventories decreased slightly, and ports destocked. The PDH operating rate was 71.74% (-3.71). Overall, the domestic chemical market is strong, the civil market has the expectation of strengthening in the peak season, but the futures price is over - valued, and the international propane market pattern is loose [4].