甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251118

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Methanol: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and imports are likely to remain high in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. The issue of port sanctions is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, and inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland market. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect profits [1]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina, as well as coal - chemical enterprises, are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. In September, maintenance was flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure is large in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [7]. - PP: The upstream Sinopec and PetroChina, as well as mid - stream enterprises, are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - PVC: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest plants undergo seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the realization of new production capacity and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From November 11 to 17, 2025, the power - coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2067 to 2020, the South China spot price decreased from 2073 to 1990, and the Northwest price converted to the delivery - location price decreased from 2608 to 2560 [1]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From November 11 to 17, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene price decreased from 740 to an unspecified value. The North China LL price decreased from 6770 to 6810, and the East China LL price increased from 6950 to 7010. The two - oil inventory decreased from 12073 to 12017 [7]. PP - Price Data: From November 11 to 17, 2025, Shandong propylene price increased from 5750 to 5830. The East China PP price decreased from 6375 to 6360, and the two - oil inventory decreased from 14629 to 14621 [7]. PVC - Price Data: From November 11 to 17, 2025, Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 807 to 792. The calcium - carbide - based PVC price in East China remained at 4570, and the basis (high - end delivery product) remained at - 90 [7].