集运早报-20251118

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The valuation of the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The EC2602 contract rose significantly on Monday due to the announcement of the last trading day, driving up other contracts [2] - The EC2512 contract is gradually moving towards the delivery logic and is expected to fluctuate after yesterday's closing at a discount [3] - For the EC2604 contract, a short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended [3] - If the peak season demand is gradually realized, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Price and Change - EC2512 closed at 1792.3 with a 0.13% increase, trading volume of 7097, and open interest of 12086 with a decrease of 2434 [2] - EC2602 closed at 1726.0 with a 7.54% increase, trading volume of 44502, and open interest of 388880 with an increase of 837 [2] - EC2604 closed at 1187.7 with a 2.59% increase, trading volume of 4647, and open interest of 16182 with an increase of 564 [2] - Other contracts (EC2606, EC2608, EC2610) also had different price changes and volume/interest situations [2] - Month - to - Month Spread - The EC2512 - 2504 spread was 604.6, with a day - on - day decrease of 27.7 and a week - on - week decrease of 42.8 [2] - The EC2512 - 2602 spread was 66.3, with a day - on - day decrease of 118.7 and a week - on - week decrease [2] - The EC2502 - 2604 spread was 538.3, with a day - on - day increase of 91.0 and a week - on - week increase of 110.9 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot Price Index - The SCFIS (European Line) index on November 17 was 1357.67 points, a 9.78% decrease from the previous period [2] - The SCH (European Line) price on November 14 was $1417/TEU, a 7.11% increase from the previous period [2] - The CCFI (European Line) index on November 14 was 1403.64 points, a 2.69% increase from the previous period [2] - The NCFI index on November 14 was 979.34 points, a 7.42% increase from the previous period [2] 3.3 Recent Quotation Situation of European Lines - November Lower - Half Price Increase Announcement - Shipping companies previously announced a price increase of $2365 - 2950 for the lower half of November [4] - Specific Weekly Quotes - In Week 47, the offline PA was around $1900 - 2100, OA and Gemini were at $2200 - 2400, and the average shipping company price was $2260 (equivalent to about 1580 points on the futures market) [4] - In Week 48, MSK opened at $2000, PA remained the same, OA did not adjust the price, and the average price was $2230 (equivalent to about 1560 points on the futures market) [4] - December Price Increase Letters - MSK and MSC have issued December price increase letters, and other shipping companies may follow this week [4] 3.4 Related News - On November 18, Hamas stated that it is legal to resist Israel by all means and refuses to disarm [5] - The UN Security Council passed a Gaza - related resolution on November 18, which was welcomed by the State of Palestine. The resolution aims to establish a permanent and comprehensive cease - fire in the Gaza Strip, ensure the unimpeded entry and distribution of humanitarian aid, and reaffirm the Palestinian people's right to self - determination and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state [5]