瑞银展望2026：医药行业投资展望

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical industry in China, with an expected annual growth rate of 7% leading to a market size of $2.1 trillion by 2030 [1][2]. Core Insights - The primary driver of growth in the Chinese pharmaceutical market is the aging population, with the proportion of individuals aged 65 and above expected to rise to 27% by 2040, significantly increasing healthcare spending [1][2]. - The market is primarily funded through health insurance and out-of-pocket expenses, with commercial insurance projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% over the next five years [1][4]. - Innovative drugs, medical devices, healthcare services, and traditional Chinese medicine are identified as high-growth potential segments, with innovative drugs expected to achieve a CAGR of 20% over the next five years [1][5]. Summary by Sections Market Growth and Trends - The Chinese healthcare market is anticipated to add $700 billion in market size over the next five years, reaching $1.4 trillion in 2024 and $2.1 trillion by 2030, driven by an aging population [2]. - By 2024, individuals aged 65 and older will account for 15% of the population, increasing to 27% by 2040, leading to a significant rise in healthcare expenditures [2]. Funding Sources - The main funding sources for the Chinese pharmaceutical market include health insurance, out-of-pocket payments, commercial insurance, social spending, and government funding, with health insurance and out-of-pocket payments being the most significant [4]. Growth Potential in Sub-sectors - The report highlights that innovative drugs, medical devices, healthcare services, and traditional Chinese medicine have substantial growth potential, with innovative drugs projected to capture nearly 60% of the market by 2030 [5]. Biotech and CDMO Developments - Biotech companies are expected to reach breakeven by 2025-2026, with a significant increase in licensing activities, and Chinese innovative drugs now represent one-third of the global pipeline [6][11]. - CDMO companies with high overseas revenue are favored, as the domestic investment environment improves, despite ongoing price competition [8]. International Participation - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are becoming key players in global innovation, with 30% of global clinical trials conducted by Chinese firms in 2024, up from 5% in 2014 [9]. Online Pharmaceutical Sales - The online pharmaceutical market is projected to grow significantly, with a current penetration rate of only 13%, indicating substantial room for growth [17][25].