氯碱周报：SH：主力下游拿货积极性一般，价格缺乏支撑v，需求支撑乏力，价格难言乐观-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. The purchasing enthusiasm of the main downstream alumina has declined, and the long - term supply - demand remains under pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For PVC, the supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and the price is hard to be optimistic, with an expected continuation of the bottom - weakening pattern. Futures strategies suggest a bearish approach, and option strategies suggest waiting and seeing [2][3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda - Price and Market Situation: The caustic soda futures price has shown various trends due to factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand changes, and cost fluctuations. The spot price has also been affected by factors like alumina demand and enterprise profit. For example, the Shandong liquid chlorine price going negative has impacted enterprise profits, and the price has support at the 2350 level [8]. - Supply: The national average weekly weighted operating load rate of sample enterprises was 89.79%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from last week. The caustic soda output in terms of 100% purity was 86.62 tons, a 0.08% decrease from last week. Some chlor - alkali plants reduced production due to maintenance or breakdowns. There are also many maintenance plans for caustic soda plants in different regions [27][28]. - Demand: Alumina is the main downstream of caustic soda. From the end of 2024 to 2025, there are plans to put into production 12.3 million tons of alumina capacity (including 2 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production increase of about 6%. The new alumina capacity is expected to increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year. However, the alumina industry currently has poor profits, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term, with a price range of 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Non - aluminum downstream industries such as printing, dyeing, and textiles also have weak demand [32][33][36]. - Export: In September, the export profit of caustic soda increased, and the export volume rebounded significantly. However, it is estimated that the export profit will decline later [57]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - Price and Market Situation: The PVC futures price has continued to decline due to the lack of positive supply - demand drivers and a poor commodity market atmosphere. The spot price has also been weak, with the core issue being the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand [64][65]. - Profit: The industry profit of PVC has been deteriorating, including the profits of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in the East China region, as well as the marginal integrated profit and northwest integrated profit [70]. - Supply: The domestic PVC powder industry's operating load rate decreased this week. There were 2 new planned maintenance devices, and the overall maintenance loss increased. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder was 76.71%, a decrease of 2.57 percentage points from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of calcium carbide - based PVC powder was 79.57%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, and that of ethylene - based PVC powder was 70.13%, a decrease of 7.1 percentage points [84]. - Demand: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate industry, which is the main demand source, is still in the bottom - building period, and the demand is expected to continue to be negative. The domestic demand has not improved significantly, and the downstream orders are significantly lower than the average level of the past five years, with high raw material and finished - product inventories [96]. - Inventory: The PVC inventory has decreased slightly, but the total inventory is still at the highest level in recent years compared year - on - year [104]. - Export: In September 2025, the PVC import volume was 14,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 16.08% and a year - on - year increase of 7.73%. The export volume was 346,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 21.945% and a year - on - year increase of 24.53% [122].