沪锌期货早报-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures showing a volatile trend, closing with a doji star, and the trading volume shrank. Both long and short positions reduced, with more reduction in long positions. Overall, it was a volatile trend with shrinking volume. The bulls actively exited the market, and the bears also exited to wait and see. In the short - term, the market may weaken. Technically, the price closed above the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator declined and was operating in the weak area. The trend indicator declined, the bullish power decreased, the bearish power increased, and the advantage of the bullish power narrowed. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc ZN2512 will fluctuate and decline [2][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In August 2025, the global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, and the consumption was 1.1717 million tons, with a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the global zinc plate production was 9.0885 million tons, and the consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, the global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price was 22,550, and the basis was +85, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On November 17, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 39,975 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 5,108 tons to 76,861 tons compared with the previous day, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.4 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on November 17 - The trading volume of zinc futures on November 17 was 158,852 lots, with a total trading value of 1.78397762 billion yuan, and the open interest was 217,728 lots, a decrease of 8,952 lots [3]. 3.5 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on November 17 - The spot TC of zinc concentrate was 2,600 - 1,000 yuan/metal ton, and the comprehensive TC of imported zinc concentrate was 100 dollars/ton. The price of 0 zinc in different regions ranged from 22,260 - 22,600 yuan/ton [4]. 3.6 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (November 6 - November 17, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in the main domestic markets on November 17 was 162,000 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared with November 10 and an increase of 1,300 tons compared with November 13 [5]. 3.7 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on November 17 - The total zinc warrants on November 17 was 76,861 tons, an increase of 5,108 tons. Among them, the warrants in Guangdong increased by 1,712 tons [6]. 3.8 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on November 17 - The inventory in different LME warehouses changed, with an overall increase in some warehouses and a decrease in others [7]. 3.9 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on November 17 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions ranged from 17,980 - 18,480 yuan, with price increases and decreases in different regions [9]. 3.10 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on November 17 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters ranged from 22,100 - 23,100 yuan, all with a price decrease of 90 yuan [12]. 3.11 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The planned production value in October 2025 was 509,600 tons, and the actual production was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The planned production in November is 522,300 tons [14]. 3.12 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on November 17 - The processing fees of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions ranged from 2,400 - 3,100 yuan/metal ton, with most regions showing a decrease [16]. 3.13 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on November 17 - For the contract code zn2512, the total trading volume of the top 20 futures companies was 154,364 lots, a decrease of 37,180 lots compared with the previous day. The total long position was 61,285 lots, a decrease of 5,837 lots, and the total short position was 63,757 lots, a decrease of 4,713 lots [18].