大越期货尿素早报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, while the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand is weak in the short - term, and industrial demand is moderately weak. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the supply pressure has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved the export situation compared to the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the urea futures main contract will show a volatile trend today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The current daily production and operating rate have rebounded, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand is weak in the short - term, and industrial demand is moderately weak. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are both at relatively low levels compared to the same period. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the supply pressure has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved the export situation compared to the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. The domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1590 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -72, and the premium - discount ratio is -4.5%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (-92,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Futures Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The futures market of the urea main contract shows that industrial demand is moderately weak, agricultural demand is weak, and the improvement in exports compared to the previous period boosts the market sentiment. The domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will show a volatile trend today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 22.455 million tons | | 19.5681 million tons | 4.4838 million tons | 18.6% | 24.0519 million tons | 236,600 tons | 24.0519 million tons | | | 2019 | | 24.455 million tons | 8.9% | 22.4 million tons | 4.8794 million tons | 17.9% | 27.2794 million tons | 378,600 tons | 27.1374 million tons | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 28.255 million tons | 15.5% | 25.8098 million tons | 6.1912 million tons | 19.3% | 32.001 million tons | 378,300 tons | 32.0013 million tons | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 31.485 million tons | 11.4% | 29.2799 million tons | 3.5241 million tons | 10.7% | 32.804 million tons | 357,200 tons | 32.8251 million tons | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 34.135 million tons | 8.4% | 29.6546 million tons | 3.3537 million tons | 10.2% | 33.0083 million tons | 446,200 tons | 32.9193 million tons | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 38.935 million tons | 14.1% | 31.9359 million tons | 2.9313 million tons | 8.4% | 34.8672 million tons | 446,500 tons | 34.8669 million tons | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 44.185 million tons | 13.5% | 34.25 million tons | 3.6 million tons | 9.5% | 37.85 million tons | 514,000 tons | 37.7825 million tons | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 49.06 million tons | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9] Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1590 | -10 | 01 Contract | 1662 | 10 | Warehouse Receipts | 7183 | 0 | | Shandong Spot | 1590 | -10 | Basis | -72 | -20 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.566 million tons | | | Henan Spot | 1600 | 0 | UR01 | 1662 | 10 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 1.484 million tons | | | FOB China | 2843 | | UR05 | 1737 | 10 | UR Port Inventory | 82,000 tons | | | | | | UR09 | 1755 | 7 | | | | [6]