Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In October, China's manufacturing production activities slowed down compared to the previous month, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%. The overall situation is neutral [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 86,510 with a basis of 60, indicating a premium over futures, also neutral [2]. - On November 17, copper inventories increased by 325 to 136,050 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper inventories decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons compared to the previous week, remaining neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is moving upwards, a neutral signal [2]. - The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing, showing a slightly bullish tendency [2]. - It is expected that with the inventory rebound and geopolitical disturbances still existing (such as the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia), copper prices will fluctuate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Supply - side disturbances and manufacturing slowdown, neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot premium over futures, neutral [2]. - Inventory: Inventory changes, neutral [2]. - Disk: Closing price and moving average relationship, neutral [2]. - Main Positions: Net long with decreasing long positions, slightly bullish [2]. - Expectation: High - level price fluctuations due to inventory and geopolitics [2]. 3.2 Recent利多利空 Analysis - Leveraging Factors: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation, but no clear indication of impact direction [3]. 3.3 Inventory - Exchange Inventory: SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons compared to last week, and on November 17, copper inventory increased by 325 to 136,050 tons [2]. - Bonded Area Inventory: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. 3.4 Processing Fee - Processing fees are falling [17]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state [21]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [23].
大越期货沪铜早报-20251118
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-18 02:18