大越期货油脂早报-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, it will enter the production cut season, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8440, the basis is 158, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 8600 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, it will enter the production increase season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8710, the basis is 30, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9000 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, it will enter the production increase season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10240, the basis is 360, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish: The inventory-to-sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]