铁矿石早报（2025-11-18）-20251118

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint The overall supply and demand of iron ore are loose, with steel mills' hot metal production starting to decrease, port inventories accumulating, and weak terminal demand. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish. However, there are also some bullish factors such as the spot premium over futures, price above the 20 - day line, and net long positions of the main contract [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Fundamentals: Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are accumulating, and terminal demand is weak; bearish [2] - Basis: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to the futures price is 837, with a basis of 48; Rizhao Port Brazilian blend spot converted to the futures price is 855, with a basis of 66. The spot is at a premium to the futures; bullish [2] - Inventory: Port inventory is 15,812.84 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; neutral [2] - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2] - Main Position: The main position of iron ore is net long, with long positions decreasing; bullish [2] - Expectation: Domestic demand is decreasing, port inventories are accumulating, with a volatile and bearish outlook [2] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish Factors: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventories, import losses, and strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials due to rising downstream steel prices [6] - Bearish Factors: Increased future shipments and weak terminal demand [6] Other Catalogs The report also includes information on iron ore port spot prices [7], iron ore futures - spot basis [12], iron ore import profit [15], iron ore shipping volume [18], iron ore port and steel mill inventories [20], iron ore arrival and port clearance volume [22], iron ore daily consumption [25], steel enterprise production [27], iron ore port daily trading volume and steel mills' daily hot metal production [30], but no specific data summaries are provided in the given text.