大越期货玻璃早报-20251118

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The supply of glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level. After the downstream's phased replenishment ended, the glass factory's inventory has increased. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1029 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safe large - board glass was 1028 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The main basis was - 1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.00% from the previous value [5]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1028 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [10]. Fundamental - Cost Side - There is no specific content provided in the text about the cost - side analysis other than the mention of glass production profit, but no detailed data or analysis is given. Fundamental - Production - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide was 222, with an operating rate of 75%, at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of float glass nationwide was 159,100 tons, with the production capacity at a historically low level in the same period [21][23]. Fundamental - Demand - The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders for glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic. Traders and processors are cautious and mainly consume the original glass inventory [4]. Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 63.247 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.18% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the 5 - year average [2][39]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, consumption, and other data of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [40]. Influencing Factors - Likely Positive Factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy and environmental protection policy, the capacity of the float glass industry has been cleared. In the Shahe area, "coal - to - gas" conversion and industry cold - repair have led to production losses [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: The main logic is that the glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, the downstream's phased replenishment has ended, and the glass factory's inventory has increased. The risk point is that the intensity of the "anti - involution" policy exceeds expectations [3].