沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251118

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For沪镍, the market is expected to run in a weak and volatile manner, facing downward pressure and testing previous lows [2] - For不锈钢, it is also expected to be under weak and volatile pressure, testing the previous low - level support [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1.沪镍 - Fundamentals: The external market is under pressure with prices dropping significantly. Nickel ore prices are firm, and the 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply. Nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless - steel inventory is rising with an oversupply situation. New nickel production capacity is coming online while some production is being cut. In the short - term, output may decline, but in the long - term, supply remains strong with continuous inventory build - up. The new energy vehicle industry has good production and sales data, but the overall boost to nickel is limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [2] - Basis: The spot price is 118,700, and the basis is 1,950, which is bullish [2] - Inventory: LME inventory is 257,694 (+5,604), and the Shanghai Stock Exchange warehouse receipts are 35,826 (+799), which is bearish [2] - Market: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2] 2. Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. In the short - term, nickel ore prices are firm, sea freight is stable, nickel iron prices are falling, the cost line continues to decline, and stainless - steel inventory has increased significantly [4] - Basis: The average stainless - steel price is 13,437.5, and the basis is 1,022.5, which is bullish [4] - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts are 69,289 (-1,076), which is neutral [4] - Market: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4] 3. Price Overview - 沪镍: The main沪镍 contract on November 17 was 116,750, down 330 from November 14. The LME nickel price was 14,675, down 205 from November 14. Spot prices of various nickel products dropped compared to November 14 [12] - Stainless Steel: The main stainless - steel contract on November 17 was 12,415, up 35 from November 14. Spot cold - rolled 304*2B stainless - steel prices in major cities remained unchanged from November 14 [12] 4. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of November 14, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 40,573 tons, with futures inventory of 35,027 tons, an increase of 3,386 tons and 2,393 tons respectively compared to the previous period. On November 17, LME inventory was 257,694 (+5,604), and Shanghai Stock Exchange warehouse receipts were 35,826 (+799) [14][15] 5. Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On November 14, the Wuxi inventory was 584,800 tons, the Foshan inventory was 347,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,071,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,500 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 660,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,400 tons. On November 17, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts were 69,289 (-1,076) [20][21] 6. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - Red clay nickel ore CIF prices with Ni1.5% and Ni0.9% remained unchanged from November 14 to November 17. Sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained stable. High - nickel wet - ton prices decreased by 3 yuan/nickel point, and low - nickel wet - ton prices remained unchanged [24] 7. Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 12,616, the scrap - steel production cost is 12,877, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost is 16,230 [26] 8. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The imported price is converted to 117,540 yuan/ton [29]