大越期货纯碱早报-20251118

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the soda ash industry. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1231 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1175 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 56 yuan, with a change of 0.41%, 0.43%, and 0.00% respectively compared to the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1175 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Supply - The production profit of heavy soda ash is at a historical low, with a profit of - 103.50 yuan/ton for the North China ammonia - soda process and - 232 yuan/ton for the East China combined - soda process [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 84.80%, and the weekly output is 73.92 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 41.09 tons, and the output is at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there are large - scale new production capacity plans for soda ash, with 640 tons in 2023, 180 tons in 2024, and a planned 750 tons in 2025, with an actual production of 100 tons [21]. Fundamentals - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 100.93% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.91 tons, and the operating rate is 75% [27]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in the plant is 170.73 tons, a decrease of 0.40% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [34]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and various growth rates [35]. Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. Bearish Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with the industry output at a historical high in the same period [4]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, weakening the demand for soda ash [4].