白糖早报-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Different institutions have varying forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand situation in the 2025/26 season, with some predicting a surplus and others a narrowing deficit [4][8][24] - Recently, the international sugar price has been weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price has been relatively resilient, with the near - term contracts stronger than the far - term ones. The 01 contract faces significant pressure around 5500 and has fallen back. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to short at high levels in the 05 contract [5][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 3.2 Daily Reminders - Fundamental data: DATAGRO estimates that the global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season will be revised down from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons; Czarnikow raises the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August forecast; StoneX predicts a 2.77 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season; ISO estimates a 231,000 - ton supply deficit in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous estimate. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China reached 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales reached 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and pre - mixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4] - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 5730, with a basis of 272 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [5] - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5] - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [5] - Main positions: The net short positions are decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5] - Expectations: Recently, the international sugar price has been weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price has been relatively resilient. The near - term contracts are stronger than the far - term ones. The 01 contract faces significant pressure around 5500 and has fallen back. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to short at high levels in the 05 contract [5][8] 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4 Fundamental Data - Bullish factors: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose [6][8] - Bearish factors: An increase in global sugar production, a surplus in global supply in the new season, the international sugar price falling to around 14 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import pressure [6][8] - Supply and demand balance sheet: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 season. For example, ISO estimates a narrowing supply deficit, while StoneX, Czarnikow, etc., predict a surplus [4][8][24] - Import and export data: In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and pre - mixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4][8] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content