大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251118

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 18, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today. The fundamental situation is oversupply, with the peak season demand for agricultural films continuing but starting to decline in some areas, and the industrial inventory being moderately high [4][6]. - For LLDPE, the overall fundamental situation is bearish, but the basis and net long position of the main contract are bullish factors [4]. - For PP, the overall fundamental situation is bearish, and the basis is neutral [6]. Detailed Summaries LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. After the China-US leaders' meeting, some restrictions on Chinese goods were lifted, and OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from supply shortage to oversupply, leading to a drop in oil prices. The peak season demand for agricultural films continues, but it has started to decline in some areas, and the demand for other films is mainly based on rigid needs. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6900 (-20), and the overall fundamental situation is bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 57, with a premium ratio of 0.8%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 579,000 tons (+39,000), which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The main position of LLDPE is net long, and the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today [4]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and the crude oil market turned to oversupply. The peak season for plastic weaving is coming to an end, while the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6460 (-10), and the overall fundamental situation is bearish [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -7, with a premium ratio of -0.1%, which is neutral [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 620,000 tons (+20,000), which is bearish [6]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The main position of PP is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2025E, the PE production capacity has been increasing, with a capacity growth rate of 20.5% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [12]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2025E, the PP production capacity has also been increasing, with a capacity growth rate of 11.0% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has been relatively low, and the consumption growth rate has also fluctuated [14]. Market Data - Spot Market: The spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6900 (-20), and the spot price of PP delivery products is 6460 (-10) [4][6][8]. - Futures Market: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts have all declined to varying degrees [8]. - Inventory: The LLDPE and PP inventories have increased, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased [8].