大越期货沥青期货早报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The refinery has reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, and the supply pressure may decrease next week. The overall demand is affected by the off - season and fails to meet expectations. The inventory remains stable, and the cost support from crude oil strengthens in the short term. It is expected that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3008 - 3056 [8]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: In November 2025, the total planned output of refinery asphalt was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity was 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The shipment of national sample enterprises was 213,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.02%. The sample enterprise output was 514,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 836,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.21%. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 6%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 11.2169%, a month - on - month increase of 0.79 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 34%, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 562.55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries was 915.1743 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14.48% [8]. - Basis: On November 17, the spot price in Shandong was 3020 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 12 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02%. The in - plant inventory was 647,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. The port - diluted asphalt inventory was 350,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.75%. The social inventory continued to decline, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to accumulate [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position increased [8]. - Expectation: It is expected that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3008 - 3056 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The document provides the historical basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [17][18][19] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The document shows the historical spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [22][23] - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26] - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The historical crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 are provided [28][29][30] - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The historical price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are shown [32][34] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The document shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [38][39] - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The historical spread trends of coking - asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025 are shown [41][42][43] - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: The historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are provided [44][45] - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The historical port inventories of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 are presented [46][47] - Output: The historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown [49][50] - Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend: The historical price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly output trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are provided [53][55] - Refinery Asphalt Output: The historical output trends of refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [56][57] - Capacity Utilization Rate: The historical weekly capacity utilization rates of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 are shown [59][60] - Maintenance Loss Estimate: The historical estimated trends of maintenance losses from 2018 to 2025 are provided [61][62] - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipt: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 are presented [64][65][66] - Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory: The historical trends of social and in - plant inventories from 2022 to 2025 are shown [68][69] - In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: The historical trends of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 are provided [71][72] - Import and Export Situation - The historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [74][75] - The historical spread trends of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 are shown [77][78][79] - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Output: The historical output trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 are provided [80][81] - Apparent Consumption: The historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [83][84] - Downstream Demand - The historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 are shown [86][87][88] - The historical sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025 are provided [90][91][92] - The historical monthly working - hour trends of excavators from 2020 to 2025 are presented [94] - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate - The historical capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown [95][96] - The historical capacity utilization rates of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [98][99] - Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation - The historical capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are provided [100][101][103] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to November 2025 is presented, including monthly output, import, export, social inventory, in - plant inventory, port - diluted asphalt inventory, and downstream demand [105][106]