大越期货豆粕早报-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - For Bean Meal (M2601): The domestic bean meal is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern between 3080 and 3140. It is influenced by the US soybean trend, with short - term demand in the off - season and spot price discount suppressing the upward movement. Although China's purchase of US soybeans supports the short - term US soybean market, there are uncertainties in the purchase volume, and the overall good US soybean harvest weather restricts the upside. Additionally, the relatively high arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China also affects the domestic bean meal market [9]. - For Soybeans (A2601): The domestic soybean price is expected to fluctuate between 4160 and 4260. The US soybean trend, the cost support of imported soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price. However, the high production of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppress the price [11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are uncertainties in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is expected to be range - bound above the thousand - point mark in the short term, waiting for further guidance on the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the planting weather in South American soybean - producing areas. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from a high level. The relatively normal harvest weather of US soybeans and the China - US trade negotiation agreement led to the short - term range - bound pattern of domestic bean meal, waiting for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bean Meal Bullish Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' bean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bean Meal Bearish Factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in November, the listing of harvested US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a good US soybean harvest [14]. - Soybean Bullish Factors: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Soybean Bearish Factors: High production of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases, and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Bean Meal: Spot price is 3000 (East China), with a basis of - 43, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill bean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase from the same period last year [9]. - Soybeans: Not specifically elaborated on fundamental data other than the price range and influencing factors 5. Position Data - Bean Meal: The main short positions increased, and the funds flowed out [9]. - Soybeans: Not specifically elaborated on position data other than the price range and influencing factors 6. Bean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies - Bean Meal (M2601): The short - term trend is neutral. The basis is bearish, the inventory is bearish, the price on the chart is bullish, the main position is bearish, and the overall short - term expectation is a range - bound pattern [9]. - Soybeans (A2601): The short - term trend is neutral. The basis is bearish, the inventory is bearish, the price on the chart is bullish, the main position is bearish, and the overall short - term expectation is a range - bound pattern [11].