大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of lithium carbonate showed that last week's production was 21,545 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The demand side indicated that the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises decreased by 0.92% week - on - week to 104,738 tons, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises decreased by 1.74% week - on - week to 19,211 tons. - In terms of cost, the cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 85,482 yuan/ton, a 1.35% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 543 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite was 89,096 yuan/ton, a 1.98% daily increase, with a loss of 6,327 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production scheduling enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation. - Overall, the fundamentals were neutral, the basis was bearish, the inventory situation was neutral, the disk was bullish, the main position was bearish, and the market of lithium carbonate 2601 fluctuated greatly, suggesting cautious operation [8][9]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply and Demand: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased slightly week - on - week, and downstream inventory decreased. In October 2025, production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month was 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October was 22,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month was 27,000 tons, a 22.73% increase. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost: The cost of purchased spodumene and lepidolite increased, resulting in losses. The cost of the salt lake end was low, with sufficient profit margins [9]. - Market Indicators: The basis was negative, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The overall inventory decreased, and the disk showed a bullish trend, while the main position was net short with a reduction in short positions [9]. - Leveraging Factors: Positive factors included the production cut plan of lepidolite manufacturers and the decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile. Negative factors were the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [10][11]. - Main Logic: Under the tight balance of supply and demand, the market was affected by sentiment fluctuations caused by news [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Overview: The prices of upstream lithium minerals, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) increased by 1.79% to $1,024/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.17% to 86,150 yuan/ton [15]. - Supply - Side Data: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 75.34%. The daily production cost of spodumene increased by 1.35% to 85,482 yuan/ton, and the monthly production cost decreased by 0.83% to 20,410 yuan/ton. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate increased by 6.35% and 10.54% respectively [18]. - Demand - Side Data: The monthly operating rate and production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate increased. The monthly export of lithium iron phosphate increased by 54.57%. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.93% to 104,738 tons [18]. - Inventory Data: The inventory of smelters decreased by 7.96% to 28,270 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 6.22% to 48,772 tons, other inventory increased by 5.34% to 43,430 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 2.80% to 120,472 tons [9]. - Supply - Demand Balance Tables: The supply - demand balance tables of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different supply - demand situations in different months. For example, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate in October 2025 was - 13,025 tons [27][34][38].