大越期货菜粕早报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2460 - 2520. The market has returned to a state of oscillation while awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season for rapeseed meal has passed, but low inventory supports the market. In the short term, it is influenced by soybean meal and maintains range - bound fluctuations. The market is currently focusing on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of a tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [9]. 3. Summary According to Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2460 - 2520 range - bound oscillation. The market is influenced by soybean meal and is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak has passed, but low inventory supports the market [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing market expectations. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the imposition of import deposits; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From November 7th to 17th, as the date progresses, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuates slightly, and the trading volume also shows significant fluctuations. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal gradually decreases, and the trading volume is 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually widens [13]. - From November 7th to 17th, the prices of rapeseed meal futures (both the main 2601 and far - month 2605 contracts) and the spot price of rapeseed meal (in Fujian) all show a downward trend [15]. - From November 6th to 17th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remain at 2745 or 2755, with only a slight change on November 6th and 7th [16]. - The import of rapeseed has no ship schedule forecast in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory remain at a low level, and the rapeseed crushing volume also stays low. Aquatic fish prices decline slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [22][24][34]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within 2460 - 2520, with a neutral fundamental view. The basis is positive, indicating a premium over the futures. The inventory is decreasing, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main long positions are increasing while the capital is flowing out, all of which are bullish signals. Due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the recent rumors of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations, it will return to an oscillating pattern in the short term [9].