大越期货原油早报-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The geopolitical events have a significant impact on short - term oil price movements. The hawkish attitude of some Fed governors dampens the optimistic expectation of a December interest rate cut, putting pressure on the market. Considering the uncertain supply - side factors, the oil price will fluctuate in the short term. The SC2512 contract is expected to trade in the range of 455 - 465, and long - term investors are advised to remain on the sidelines [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For the SC2512 contract, considering multiple factors such as fundamentals, basis, inventory, etc., it is expected to trade in the 455 - 465 range in the short term, and long - term investors should stay on the sidelines. The fundamentals include geopolitical events, Fed's attitude, and supply - side uncertainties [3]. 2. Recent News - President Trump is considering expanding military operations in Latin America, including possible actions against Venezuela, Colombia, and Mexico. He has ordered the deployment of more naval assets to the Caribbean, raising concerns about an unauthorized military expansion. He also mentioned the possibility of direct dialogue with Venezuelan President Maduro [5]. - Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson believes that the Fed should "proceed with caution" on further interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Waller thinks the current employment market situation supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the next meeting [5]. - The Novorossiysk oil terminal has resumed oil loading, but the attacks on Russian oil infrastructure by Ukraine are still under attention [5]. 3. Long - Short Focus - Likely Positive Factors: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: Tensions in the Middle East are easing, and institutions generally expect an oil supply surplus. The cancellation of US - Russia talks and increased sanctions on Russia also add to the negative factors [6]. - Market Driver: Short - term negative impacts have subsided, and geopolitical positive factors are not obvious. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of oversupply [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Spot Price and Basis: On November 17, the spot price of Oman crude was $65.23 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $64.16 per barrel. The basis was 33.71 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory Data: The API crude inventory in the US increased by 1.3 million barrels in the week ending November 7. The EIA inventory increased by 6.413 million barrels in the week ending November 7, exceeding the expected increase of 1.96 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 34,600 barrels in the week ending November 7. As of November 17, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels [3]. 5. Position Data - As of September 23, the long positions of WTI crude oil's main contract increased. As of November 11, the long positions of Brent crude oil's main contract also increased [3].