《黑色》日报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market shows mixed trends. The daily average hot metal output increased, but the production of five major steel products decreased. The supply - demand of rebar is relatively balanced after production and inventory reduction, while the supply - demand of hot - rolled coils is basically balanced with high - level inventory. There is a negative feedback basis in the iron element chain, and it is not recommended to go long. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. It is advisable to close the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage. A short - side attempt can be made on a single - side basis [2]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures continued to rebound. The global shipment volume increased this week, and the port arrival volume decreased, but the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rise. The demand side shows a weakening trend. The port inventory is accumulating, but the inventory of deliverable products is low. It is expected that the iron ore will show a high - level oscillating trend, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended for single - side trading [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - The coke and coking coal markets are also complex. The coking coal futures showed a low - level oscillating trend and a sharp decline at night. The coke futures followed the coking coal to fall at night. The spot prices of coking coal and coke are still at a high level this year, but the futures are under pressure. It is recommended to take a bearish view on single - side trading with a wait - and - see approach [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally rose. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3190 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of rebar increased from 3105 yuan/ton to 3147 yuan/ton. Meanwhile, the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, with the East China hot - rolled coil profit dropping from - 68 to - 94 yuan/ton [2]. Production - The daily average hot metal output increased by 2.6 to 236.8, a 1.1% rise. The production of five major steel products decreased by 22.4 to 834.4, a 2.6% decline. The rebar production decreased by 8.2 to 200.0, a 4.1% decline, and the hot - rolled coil production decreased by 4.5 to 313.7, a 1.4% decline [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 26.2 to 1477.4, a 1.7% decline. The rebar inventory decreased by 16.4 to 576.2, a 2.8% decline, while the hot - rolled coil inventory remained basically unchanged [2]. Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 3.0 to 13.4, a 28.4% rise. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 6.3 to 860.6, a 0.7% decline. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 2.2 to 216.4, a 1.0% decline, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 0.7 to 313.6, a 0.2% decline [2]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of some iron ore varieties in Rizhao Port increased, such as the price of Carajás fines increasing from 882.0 yuan/ton to 892.0 yuan/ton. The basis of some varieties changed, and the spreads between different contracts also showed different trends, like the 1 - 5 spread increasing from 27.0 to 29.0 [4]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 472.3 to 2268.9, a 17.2% decline, while the global weekly shipment volume increased by 447.4 to 3516.4, a 14.6% rise. The monthly national import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6, a 10.6% rise [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.7 to 236.9, a 1.1% rise. The daily average port ore - clearing volume increased by 6.0 to 327.0, a 1.9% rise. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 49.6 to 6555.0, a 0.8% decline, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 149.0 to 7200.0, a 2.0% decline [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased slightly by 1.5 to 15129.71, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 66.1 to 9076.0, a 0.7% rise [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) increased by 51 to 1713, a 3.1% rise, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) decreased by 11 to 1689, a 0.6% decline. The price of coking coal in some regions remained stable [8]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.6 to 63.0, a 0.9% decline, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 46.2, a 0.2% rise. The production of raw coal and clean coal in coal mines increased [8]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased, which is the demand for coke. The demand for coking coal is related to the production of coke [8]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased slightly, and the coking coal inventory showed different trends in different sectors, with some increasing and some decreasing [8].