《有色》日报-20251118

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelter processing fee continues to be low. Although the import volume from Myanmar has rebounded, the improvement in supply is limited. The demand in South China shows some resilience, while that in East China is suppressed. Considering the strong fundamentals, a low - buying strategy can be considered after the market sentiment stabilizes. Follow the macro - end changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon stabilizes and rises, and the futures price fluctuates. There is an arbitrage window. The supply and demand in the industrial silicon market decreased in November, with a larger decline in supply, but there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation. In December, if the organic silicon industry cuts production, the inventory accumulation pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon stabilizes, the demand is weak, and the battery price falls. The futures price drops significantly, and the arbitrage window closes. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and there is still an inventory accumulation expectation in each link. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Pay attention to the spot support and the inventory pressure [6]. Copper - The market is waiting and seeing, and the copper price fluctuates weakly. The macro situation is in a "vacuum period" in November, and the supply of copper ore remains tight. The downstream psychological price ceiling for copper is rising, and the spot maintains a premium. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the bottom of the copper price. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 85000 - 87500 [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is basically in a loose pattern, and the subsequent supply pressure may be limited due to the compression of smelting profits. The demand has no unexpected performance, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze eases. The zinc ingot export window is open, which may boost the domestic zinc price. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 22000 - 22800 [10]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a loose supply - demand pattern, showing a low - level shock. The spot market has regional differentiation. The price of electrolytic aluminum is affected by macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. It may fluctuate between the two in the short term, and there is a risk of a high - level correction above 22000 yuan/ton [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market adjusts with the aluminum price. The cost is strongly supported, but the supply is restricted by raw material shortages. The downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 20600 - 21200 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is in a weak shock. The macro - drive and demand are insufficient, and the supply pressure remains. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 12300 - 12700. Pay attention to the steel mill's production cut and the nickel - iron price [15]. Nickel - The nickel market is weak. The macro - expectation improves, but the fundamental improvement is limited. The nickel supply is loose in the medium term, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 116000 - 122000. Pay attention to the macro - expectation and the Indonesian industrial policy [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market runs strongly. Driven by news and fundamentals, the price rises. The supply increases slightly, the demand is optimistic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market may have more games. Be cautious about chasing high prices without positions, and wait for a pull - back [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin - Spot Price and Basis: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin decreased by 0.75%, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 671.90%. The import loss decreased by 1.62%, and the Shanghai - London ratio was stable [2]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, and 2602 - 2603 decreased, while that of 2603 - 2604 increased significantly [2]. - Fundamental Data: In September, the domestic tin ore import decreased by 15.13%, and the SMM refined tin production in October increased by 53.09%. The inventory of SHEF and social inventory increased [2]. Industrial Silicon - Spot Price and Basis: The price of some industrial silicon products is stable, and the premium of Tongmei decreased by 12.50%. The basis of some products changed [5]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads of 2512 - 2601 and 2601 - 2602 increased, while others changed to different extents [5]. - Fundamental Data: The national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% in October, and the inventory of some regions and the overall social inventory changed [5]. Polysilicon - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of polysilicon is stable, and the battery price falls. The futures price drops by 1390 yuan/ton, and the arbitrage window closes [6]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads of some contracts changed, with the largest change in the current - month to the first - continuous contract [6]. - Fundamental Data: The monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08%, and the inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [6]. Copper - Price and Basis: The prices of various copper products decreased, and the refined - scrap spread decreased by 6.23%. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly [7]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads of 2511 - 2512 and 2601 - 2602 changed [7]. - Fundamental Data: The electrolytic copper production in October decreased by 2.62%, and the import volume in September increased by 26.50%. The inventory of some ports and the electrolytic copper rod's operating rate changed [7]. Zinc - Price and Spread: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.40%, and the import loss and the Shanghai - London ratio changed [10]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads of some contracts changed [10]. - Fundamental Data: The refined zinc production in October increased by 2.85%, and the inventory of LME and domestic zinc ingots changed [10]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 1.28%, and the import loss and the Shanghai - London ratio changed [12]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads of some contracts changed [12]. - Fundamental Data: The alumina production in October increased by 2.39%, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52%. The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and LME changed [12]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.46%, and the refined - scrap spread of some products decreased [13]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads of some contracts changed [13]. - Fundamental Data: The production of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots in October decreased by 2.42%, and the inventory of some regions and the overall social inventory changed [13]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B stainless steel in some regions changed, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 7.14%. The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and chromium ore changed [15]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads of some contracts changed [15]. - Fundamental Data: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly, and the import and export volumes and the inventory changed [15]. Nickel - Price and Basis: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and other nickel products decreased, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased slightly. The import loss increased [18]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads of some contracts changed slightly [18]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory: The domestic refined nickel production increased by 0.84%, and the import volume increased by 124.36%. The inventory of SHFE, social inventory, and LME increased [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and other lithium products increased, and the lithium concentrate price also increased [20]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads of some contracts changed significantly [20]. - Fundamental Data: The lithium carbonate production in October increased by 5.73%, and the inventory decreased [20].